Technical indicators tell you: When will BTC price reach its peak?

Bitcoin is down 3% in the past 24 hours and 8% in the past week. However, market analysts say that such a drop in BTC in January is not uncommon. Therefore, the bull run may resume, and according to a key technical indicator, the price of Bitcoin may peak in mid-July 2025.

BTC/USD daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Bitcoin price could peak in summer

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView show that Bitcoin remains in a four-week price consolidation range following its sharp rise in 2024, which culminated in a record high of $108,268 on December 17.

Bitcoin price has since fallen 14% from those record levels, but the 52-week simple moving average (SMA) suggests that Bitcoin still has room to rise, according to Dave the Wave, a Bitcoin trader and analyst.

While multiple studies and data have made various predictions over the past few weeks, Bitcoin has previously followed the levels depicted by the Logarithmic Growth Curve (LGC), where BTC price peaks once the 52-week SMA touches the middle band of the channel.

Dave the Wave said in a Jan. 13 post on X that Bitcoin’s price “previously peaked when the one-year moving average hit the midpoint of the LGC channel.”

“This suggests #BTC will peak mid-year.”

BTC/USD weekly chart. Source: Dave The Wave

However, the chart above shows that historically prices peaked a few days or months before or after the moving average crossed the LGC midline. For example, in 2013, prices peaked on December 13, the same day the 52-week SMA signaled a top for BTC.

In 2017, BTC peaked on December 17, but the peak signal appeared a month later on January 15, 2018. In the 2021 bull cycle, when Bitcoin peaked at $69,000 on November 10, the 52-week SMA signal appeared several months earlier, on May 3.

Therefore, Bitcoin’s 2025 peak could occur days to months before or after the one-year SMA crosses the LGC midline, expected sometime in mid-July.

Dave the Wave notes that a less steep one-year moving average means “the market is maturing.”

Bitcoin price correction enters "final stage"

Meanwhile, cryptocurrency analyst Rekt Capital said that the ongoing consolidation in Bitcoin’s price is part of the “first price discovery correction,” which occurs between the sixth and eighth weeks of the parabolic phase. These corrections last between two and four weeks.

“The current pullback has lasted for four weeks,” Rekt Capital said in a Jan. 11 analysis of X, adding:

“So, in terms of length, history suggests this correction should be in its final stages.”

Analyst Axel Adler Jr. said that the current Bitcoin decline is not as severe as the previous consolidation phase, when BTC fell by more than 26% between July 29 and August 5, 2024.

Analysts say this relatively mild correction at the beginning of the year is common in the years following a halving.

Meanwhile, veteran trader Peter Brandt shared a chart showing that BTC may have formed a head and shoulders (H&S) pattern on the daily chart, with three possible outcomes.

Regarding the first outcome, Brandt said BTC could confirm the pattern, complete the trend, and reach the target of the H&S pattern, which is below $77,000.

The other two outcomes are that price completes the pattern but fails to reach its target, resulting in a bear trap or "evolving into a larger pattern."

BTC/USD daily chart: possible H&S pattern. Source: Peter Brandt

Additionally, Bitcoin analyst Bitcoin Munger found a large amount of buying on Binance between $85,000 and $92,000, and he wondered if the price of Bitcoin would drop to fill these buys, or rise to fill the selling at $110,000.

“Please be prepared for both scenarios because I believe the $110,000 will come regardless.”