Is the bull market coming? Bitcoin is hot and I am cold

On February 28, Bitcoin rose to $64,000, just one step away from its all-time high of $69,000 in November 2021.

This wave of market conditions came quite rapidly. Since September last year, the price of BTC has been rising from around US$25,000. In six months, the price of BTC has increased by as much as 176%.

When almost everyone is shouting and cheering that the bull market in the cryptocurrency circle has arrived and no more traps are in sight, a cruel fact is: Binance, which owns 1,170 currencies, has only 7 tokens that have broken through the previous high of the previous bull market, accounting for only 0.598%!

Theoretically, if investors had bought at the highest point of the previous bull market, the number of people who have not yet untied their positions would account for as high as 99.402%!

After sorting out the 1,170 currencies on the Binance platform, the author found only 7 that surpassed the previous highs of the last bull market. Strictly speaking, TWT must be excluded because TWT surpassed it in December 2022, and the current currency price has fallen 57.14% from its high.

From the above chart, we can see that the currencies that broke the previous high generally did not rise much from the previous high. Even TRB, which rose by 283.53%, was also due to the existence of a trader behind it. So in theory, investors who hold the above currencies but bought at the previous high will have little profit.

However, the investors of the above currencies are still lucky, at least they have recovered their investment. Except for TWT, almost all of them paid the cost of two years, and some even paid two and a half years.

By analyzing the project types, we can find that the sectors involved in tokens include oracles, AI, modularization, BTC L2, IoT, and wallets, and many of these projects are popular narrative concepts in this round of market conditions. From this point of view, the investment logic of speculating on new rather than old still applies to the cryptocurrency circle.

summary

This wave of BTC price increase is indeed amazing. At this rate, it is just around the corner to hit the historical high. However, during the rise of BTC, many investors, including the author, felt that they did not make money. It seems that the bull market has come, but not all of it.

A crypto practitioner with six years of investment experience in the currency circle told the author: The LTC, NEAR, and YGG I bought in the last round are still losing 90%. Bitcoin is indeed very hot, but I feel it is very cold.