How long is it until the Ethereum spot ETF is approved?

In my article the day before yesterday, I expressed the view that the next bull market will be quite different from the previous one in some aspects.

One of these differences is the more and larger airdrops, and the other is the entry of more and larger institutional investors.

The approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF marks the beginning of more and larger institutions entering the market.

I believe that there is a high probability that the door will be opened for more institutions to enter the market in the future, such as the Ethereum ETF that is highly anticipated by the industry.

As for Ethereum ETF, big investors have already made plans. For example, BlackRock Capital submitted a related application to the SEC as early as last year. However, the news did not receive much attention at the time. It was not until the Bitcoin spot ETF was approved that everyone focused on the Ethereum ETF again.

Some people in the industry even optimistically estimate that the Ethereum ETF will be approved in May or July this year.

I am cautiously optimistic about this: cautious means that it is difficult to judge when the Ethereum ETF will be approved; optimistic means that I estimate that there is a high probability that it will be approved in the end, and the time will not be too close but not too long (for example, two years or even longer).

I guess from the regulator’s perspective, there are two elements that need to be addressed to approve an Ethereum ETF:

The first is about rhythm control.

The second is about risk control.

Regarding the control of the pace, the SEC has already approved the Bitcoin ETF. If it approves another ETF in the short term, it will inevitably give people the impression of being "hasty" and "careless." As one of the highest regulatory agencies in the U.S. financial sector, it is definitely inappropriate to give people this impression.

We can also see this from the speech of the SEC Chairman after approving the Bitcoin ETF. His speech revealed his caution about the current status of Bitcoin. I think this speech is intentionally "pouring cold water" on the market, hoping that the market will not have too high expectations for regulation in the short term.

Regarding risks, the main question is whether Ethereum is considered a security in the eyes of the SEC?

The current SEC chairman has expressed this view on many occasions, but these views have been inconsistent. His earlier view was that Ethereum was not a security, but he later expressed caution and even stopped expressing his attitude directly.

I think the reason why he made such a statement is that he probably hopes to continue to observe the development of Ethereum and learn more about the risks in order to plan better regulatory methods for Ethereum-related products.

Although regulators are cautious about Ethereum, I believe they can see that the Ethereum ecosystem is thriving, which demonstrates the innovation and huge potential of crypto assets and crypto technologies.

It is impossible for regulation to stop this trend.

This is speculation from a regulatory perspective.

If we look at it from the perspective of institutions and big capital, I think they will have stronger profit motivations and more practical business purposes to promote the passage of the Ethereum ETF.

Recently, @RyanSAdams, co-founder of the well-known overseas crypto media Bankless, left a message on Twitter:

Get ready for:

BlackRock Chain (L2)

BlackRock Dollar (BRUSD)

BlackRock Assets (tokenized ERC20s)

That's why Larry Fink is doing the roadshow.

First Bitcoin ETF, then Ethereum ETF, then tokenization. He's literally telling us the plan.

This sentence translates to:

Get ready:

BlackRock Chain (L2)

BlackRock USD (BRUSD)

BlackRock Assets (Tokenized ERC20)

That's why Larry Fink (head of BlackRock) does road shows.

First the Bitcoin ETF, then the Ethereum ETF, and next comes tokenization. His plan is clear.

This passage is so insightful.

In my opinion, the ERC20 and tokenization mentioned in this passage refer to the tokenization of physical assets, which is the RWA track that the industry has always been optimistic about.

In my previous articles and Twitter exchanges, I have expressed my views on the RWA track many times: this track is actually the fat meat of institutions.

The institution will never give up this huge profit to other players.

Ethereum is an excellent platform that can quickly carry and realize this commercial interest. Therefore, institutions will certainly hope that Ethereum will be accepted by regulators as soon as possible so that they can do it freely.

Although the above does not seem to have been said by Larry Fink and is just speculation, everyone can see the internal logic and the huge commercial benefits that may be contained therein.

So as one of the world's top capital, I don't believe that BlackRock's purpose in applying for Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs is simply to provide customers with a financial management tool for crypto assets. It must have greater ambitions and longer-term plans.

Therefore, for institutions and capital, their urgency and eagerness to push for the approval of the Ethereum ETF will far exceed that of us retail investors.

I believe that in the future, these large institutions and big capital will interact frequently with the SEC, both openly and covertly, and try their best to remove the obstacle of regulation that stands in their way to greater business interests.