ETFs should not rush: the three major signals of the bull market have not yet arrived

The market is fluctuating. Is it a rapid recovery of the bull market or a violent demolition?

On October 24, many people were stunned by the rise in Bitcoin prices after waking up. The last time a fake news from Cointelegraph caused a 10% surge was still fresh in people’s minds. This time, the price directly surged by more than 15%, exceeding $35,000, the first time since entering the bear market.

However, how far is the bull market? Is the bull market coming? This is the question many people are wondering.

| 71% Bullish

On October 24, according to media reports, BlackRock's Bitcoin spot ETF has been listed on the Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation (DTCC) with the stock code IBTC, which is a step in the listing of Bitcoin spot ETF.

In addition, the US court officially ruled that the SEC needs to reconsider converting Grayscale GBTC into a Bitcoin spot ETF. At the same time, the SEC has accepted the filing of changes to the listing and trading rules of Grayscale's Ethereum Trust.

Influenced by the above news, Bitcoin rose by more than 15% in a short period of time, reaching a high of more than US$35,000 per coin, and other mainstream currencies also saw sharp increases.

Bitcoin ETF fund inflows today reached 43 million US dollars, equivalent to 10% of the total inflows this year. Does this mean that the smart money in the market may have obtained some clues and started to take action?

In fact, the BlackRock Bitcoin spot ETF was launched on the Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation (DTCC), but it was not truly approved. Judging from the application progress of various institutions and the final review deadline of the SEC, the real spot ETF approval will not be until January 2024 at the latest.

@Phyrex said that this does not mean that BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF has been approved, it is just part of the preparation process. BlackRock is very clear about the entire process, so they have more experience in saving time.

He reminded that when you really have to spend money, you should be a little more rational. If you hope to make a quick buck in the short term and run away, you should be careful. Whether or not the SEC will approve it and when it will approve it is not something that can be influenced by anyone, not even the House of Representatives or the President of the United States.

However, investment sentiment driven by ETFs has risen. According to a Bybit online survey on bullish/bearish BTC, as of now, the proportion of bullish BTC exceeds 71%.

| Bull market, don’t rush

At present, the general consensus in the industry is that the bull market has not really arrived, and this is just a pull of good news before the spot Bitcoin ETF is passed in the United States.

Wang Feng, CEO of Linekong Interactive (HK) Group, said on social media, don’t be impatient, the starting point of the next bull market requires three necessary conditions: SEC approval of the spot BTC ETF, the next round of Bitcoin halving, and monetary easing.

However, none of these three conditions are met.

Many people believe that this wave of price pull-ups may have been caused by insiders.

@Crypto Rover tweeted: “I wouldn’t be surprised if this Bitcoin rally was caused by insiders since they know all spot Bitcoin ETFs will be accepted any day now.”

@BITCOINLFG also believes that the surge in BTC is because some big players and insiders know that the BITCOIN spot ETF is about to be approved.

@阿干谈币 reminded everyone not to get too excited, "This wave of rise is just a small market, it is definitely not a bull market, everyone should not get too excited, don't give the market FOM, when it can't go up, what's left is high sideways fluctuations, and slowly falling."

In addition to the positive factors of ETF, the price of Bitcoin will also be affected by negative factors such as strengthened supervision and capital shortage.

@Phyrex said that two counter-terrorism conferences tomorrow and the day after tomorrow may cause the United States to begin restricting the circulation of cryptocurrencies. The topics are "How the United States and its allies prevent Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran from evading sanctions and funding terrorist activities" and "Transferring funds: Understanding the Iranian regime's channels for obtaining funds around the world and how they use funds to support terrorism."

@Phyrex believes that emotional influence is one thing, but we still cannot ignore the current shortage of funds at the macro level. Under high interest rates, Americans have less and less money in their pockets, and the actual situation may be more serious than we think. When a person's money is not enough to live, how much can he use for investment? Even if he finds that the price has risen after investing, when he is short of money, he will continue to hold it or cash it out for life. This may indeed be a choice.

Regarding the current pullback, @Luke Broyles said that the BlackRock ETF looks imminent. I tried to make myself happy, but I am not excited at all, I feel sick, I hope I am wrong. Please slow down BTC...