Bitcoin Halving Cycle Repeats: Will History Repeat Itself?

• Bitcoin’s historical patterns suggest that a sharp correction could occur before the next halving event in April or May 2023.

• In past cycles, BTC prices retraced 25% and 38% prior to the halving events in 2016 and 2020, respectively.

• If history repeats itself, BTC could fall back to the $20,000 level in the pre-halving period.

The Bitcoin and cryptocurrency markets are highly cyclical and have seen patterns that repeat themselves with each cycle. The bull run that followed the halving event was followed by a sharp correction in the period leading up to the halving, and this is exactly the moment. With the next Bitcoin halving about six months away, analysts are looking for signals from previous cycles.

Bitcoin halving cycle repeats

On October 13, cryptocurrency trader and analyst “Rekt Capital” published a rather bearish chart that serves as a reminder of what happened at the same time in the previous cycle. With less than 190 days until that event, this may give us a clue as to where the stock price will go for the rest of the year.

In 2015, the BTC price retraced 25% about six months before the 2016 halving. In addition, the BTC price also experienced a sharp drop of up to 38% at the end of 2019, which was also about six months away from the 2020 halving event.

A similar pullback in the period leading up to the halving could see the price of Bitcoin plummet to the $20,000 level. In addition, several analysts have recently echoed the view of a sell-off in November.

Earlier this week, technical analyst “CryptoCon” compared market cycles as they approached the halving. The past two cycles had similar six-month sideways trading periods that lasted until the end of the year. In 2023, the cryptocurrency market has been sideways for seven months.

However, prices fell back to their lows in November, which became the turning point for the next bull run. “We are still waiting for the day when these cycles align perfectly ... November 21st,” he said.

History repeats itself

Crypto trader and analyst “Mags” made a similar observation, noting how much Bitcoin has fallen relative to its peak with six months left until the halving. In 2015, Bitcoin was 65% below its all-time high at this point in the cycle. In 2019, Bitcoin was roughly 60% below its ATH, and in 2023, Bitcoin is currently 61% below its ATH. The asset is currently trading flat on the trading day at the time of writing, but is down about 4% since the weekend. There is solid support around $26,000, which is a month away from mid-August, so this could be its next move. If this cycle is destined to repeat, it could quickly fall lower.