Is the rise of BTC this year due to Binance’s $3.5 billion pull?

Binance released its latest proof of reserves, revealing:

On March 8, due to the collapse of Silvergate, Binance lacked large-scale deposit and withdrawal channels, so it began to convert USDC reserves into BTC and ETH.

Between March 12 and May 1, Binance purchased approximately 100,000 BTC and 550,000 ETH, totaling approximately $3.5 billion.

Although it seems fine on the surface, it becomes very interesting if the BTC trend during this period is displayed. During this period, Binance purchased 3.4 billion US dollars of BTC and ETH. BTC rose from 22,000 US dollars on March 12 to 29,000 US dollars on May 1. There are several questions involved here: Did Binance actively exchange USDC for BTC/ETH? Was the rise of BTC this year affected by Binance's 3.5 billion US dollars?

The first question is: Did Binance proactively exchange USDC for BTC/ETH? Did the exchange users exchange USDC for BTC/ETH, and then Binance had to exchange it for BTC/ETH in order to maintain sufficient reserves? The answer is: Binance's free funds proactively purchased $3.5 billion of BTC/ETH.

Here is the relevant evidence:

- According to data released by Binance, as of March 1, the exchange users held only more than 60 million USDC.

- Binance holds 3.5 billion USDC.

- Binance’s own net balance is USDC 3.48 billion.

As of May 1, Binance’s own net balance was negative 23 million.

The second question: Is the rise of BTC this year due to Binance’s $3.5 billion pull?

Because Binance purchased about 100,000 BTC and 550,000 ETH, totaling about $3.5 billion. Therefore, the cost of BTC held by Binance is about $26,000, and the cost of ETH is about $1,600. Although $26,000 cannot be considered a low point, the position purchased by Binance is not the main puller in the BTC price trend, but it is still an important driving force.