JPMorgan Analyst: Bitcoin Could Reach $45,000

Correlation between Bitcoin and Gold

Analysts at major financial institution JPMorgan Chase said in a memo to clients that the cryptocurrency bitcoin could reach 6.3 million yen ($45,000) in its latest price forecast.

Due to the scarcity of Bitcoin, which is capped at 21 million BTC, many investors include it in their portfolio as an alternative investment as part of a risk hedge. It is sometimes referred to as "digital gold" based on the asset value of gold. Recently, some have pointed out its correlation with the price of gold.

Analysts at JPMorgan Chase said:

With gold prices hovering above $2,000, the value of gold held for investment purposes outside of central banks is currently around $3 trillion. If Bitcoin were as big as gold in retail investor portfolios in terms of venture capital or after adjusting for [volume], that would mean a Bitcoin price of $45,000.

Bitcoin Halving

Another reason JPMorgan supports a rise in Bitcoin prices is the Bitcoin halving, which is expected to occur around the end of April 2024.

Bitcoin halving refers to the time when the Bitcoin mining reward is halved. Bitcoin stipulates that every time the number of blocks reaches 210,000 (approximately once every four years), the number of newly issued BTC given to miners as rewards will be halved.

JPMorgan Chase expects that by next year’s halving, the cost of Bitcoin mining (the break-even point) will double from current levels to about $40,000. Miners’ costs “have historically been an effective support line,” so the price of Bitcoin is likely to rise after the halving.

In addition, according to historical data, the price of Bitcoin entered a bull market before and after the halving in 2016 and 2020, and we expect a similar phenomenon to occur next time.

JPMorgan also mentioned Ethereum, saying that these stocks could face short-term selling pressure until mid-year.

Arthur Hayes Bullish

Arthur Hayes, former CEO of leading derivatives exchange BitMEX, is bullish on Bitcoin beyond 2024.

In the podcast, Hayes stressed the importance of the Bitcoin halving in 2024. In the same year, he expressed an optimistic prediction that Bitcoin will break through the $70,000 (9.8 million yen) barrier and set a new all-time high between 2025 and 2026.

At the same time, the U.S. banking crisis and the U.S. federal government's "trillion-dollar bond issuance" triggered a "powder keg explosion" in the third and fourth quarters of this year, and Bitcoin price volatility declined. He believes this will be intense, but may ultimately be beneficial to Bitcoin.

Hayes also said he is watching the movement of “Bitcoin Ordinals,” the Bitcoin version of NFTs.

The Youtube show “Digital Asset News” with 330,000 subscribers mentioned the expansion of the NFT market on the Bitcoin blockchain. He cited the fact that it surpassed Solana to become the second largest NFT blockchain as a reason to be optimistic about the future price of Bitcoin.