When the market is rising, short

Overnight, Bitcoin (BTC) rose again, once reaching 32k, and returned to above the 30-day moving average of 31.6k. It has significantly broken away from the small sideways movement at the bottom of the 29-30k range that lasted for nearly 20 days since May.

A few days ago, someone said that if the market goes sideways for a long time, it will fall. In fact, if we look at the K-line chart upside down, this statement is also true.

At this moment, the community was silent.

During the period of small sideways trading at the bottom, long-term bulls quietly hoarded stocks. Short sellers who gave up the idea of ​​long-term investment, bears who saw the price below $20,000, and short sellers who "sold at high prices" started their own carnival. The community was full of empty voices.

For those who have given up the belief in long-term investment in Bitcoin, he thought the Bitcoin at 69k on November 10 last year was too expensive and did not buy it. He also thought the Bitcoin that rose to 41k on December 4 (closed at 47k) was still too expensive and did not buy it. He still thought the Bitcoin that fell to 32.9k on January 24 of the following year was too expensive and did not buy it. He still thought the Bitcoin that further collapsed and fell to a low of 26.6k on May 12 (the average price during the small sideways trading period was between 29k and 30,000 dollars) was too expensive and did not buy it.

How much would such a person buy? $20,000? $15,000? $8,000? $1,000? $100? $10?

In my opinion, he will not buy it no matter how cheap the price is.

Holding short positions and waiting for a fall can be a form of greed for a lower price, or it can be a form of doubt that does not believe in the big picture.

We should maintain a greedy mentality and stay hungry, which provides us with the motivation to work hard and make progress. But we should not be too greedy, otherwise we will end up with nothing.

We should maintain a skeptical spirit, which provides us with a powerful weapon to explore and discover the truth. But we should not fall into the trap of skepticism. Hume's agnosticism will make us completely lost.

After all, it's just leeks.

The best time to short is the local high of 69k before November 11 last year, rather than the small sideways period of 30k which has already fallen by more than half.

However, he was not seen shorting at 69k, 41k/47k, or 32.9k. When it fell to the last drop, at 26.6k and below 30,000 dollars, he started shorting.

He does not decide to short sell based on the price, but rather based on market sentiment.

When it was 69k, everyone was calling for 100k, so he didn’t dare to go short. When it was 41k/47k, everyone was rejecting it and thought it would rebound soon, so he didn’t dare to go short. When it was 32.9k, everyone started to doubt, not knowing where the next step would be, so he didn’t dare to go short. After it hit 26.6k and fell below 30k, everyone was afraid and pessimistic about the future market, and when he saw it was 20k or even 10k, he also started to go short boldly.

It can be seen that he did not have his own independent judgment when shorting, but simply followed the mainstream sentiment of the market.

Even if you can make a small profit on one or two small orders, can such a short position last long? Obviously not.

Just when Kong Kong Zhi Sheng was bustling with people, Da Bing rose sharply for two consecutive days, quickly ending the carnival party.

I don't know what happened.

All I heard was silence in the community.