PlanB, a well-known analyst on Twitter: The Bitcoin bull market is over

Yesterday, PlanB, a well-known analyst on Twitter, sent a tweet that rarely reversed his bullish attitude and declared that this round of bull market has ended. He said:

“Technical (RSI) and on-chain (realized) indicators show #bitcoin has completed a full cycle. We have been through a bull market (March/April 2021) and a bear market. In fact, we are still in a bear market. The question is: is the bottom behind us (similar to the situation in 2012) or has it not yet arrived (e.g. RSI < 50)?”

Who is PlanB? Please recall Liu Jiaolian’s article “No Second Half at the End of the Year” on October 15 last year. That article was a rebuttal to PlanB’s prediction that the bull market would peak at the end of 2021. It recorded:

"There is an analyst called PlanB abroad who is well-known in the industry for predicting the price in the second half of the year on Twitter as early as June 20. The prices he gave at that time were: Aug>47k, Sep>43k, Oct>63k, Nov>98k, Dec>135k."

At that time, Plan B was accurate three times, and almost became a god. Countless people began to look forward to the bull market reaching a peak of more than $135,000 by the end of the year as he predicted. But I said bluntly in the article:

“Those who refuse to leave, covet the pie that PlanB has drawn, and plan to hold on until the end of the year to make a triumphant escape, or even want to take advantage of the last opportunity to make deposits and withdrawals, may inevitably face the painful end of being forced to sell at a loss.”

We all know what happened next. After reaching a high of $69,000 in early November, the market took a sharp turn for the worse and continued to fall. It has been falling for six months, and now it is less than $40,000 at $38,000.

Just when everyone was confused about whether there would be a second half, whether the bull market had ended, and whether the market had completely turned bearish, Plan B jumped out again.

He announced loudly: This bull market is over.

He said: We are now in a bear market.

He even said: We are not even sure if $40,000 is the bottom of the bear market, suggesting that there may be a lower bottom later.

After all, according to past experience, in a bear market, Bitcoin can fall by about 80% from its peak. Based on the previous high of 69k, that means it will fall to 13,800 dollars.

$13,800 - This is the bottom where some people start to sing bearish tune, and the time point is at the end of 2022 or the beginning of 2023.

Just ask you, are you afraid?

People call judging the future based rigidly on historical experience "looking for a sword on a boat".

When Plan B tried to predict the bullish trend of the monthly closing prices in the second half of 2021 based on the monthly closing prices in 2017, he failed.

Now, when Plan B reverses and the market turns bearish again, the bears begin to follow historical experience to try their best to find a sword in the boat.

The cow carving a boat to find the sword will not succeed. Will the bear carving a boat to find the sword succeed?

PlanB has announced his surrender, how long will it take for him to be slapped in the face?

Predictions are not important, and analysis is done behind closed doors.

What is important is the eight-character formula.

All profits in the bull market phase come from increased positions in the bear market phase.

The first two words of the Eight Characters Formula are “persistence”.

Did you hold on?