BTC should pay attention to the risk of long-term collapse

As shown in the figure, this is the long-term weekly trend of BTC. Currently, BTC has dropped from the top of 69,000 US dollars to the green line area in the figure. The current point is 36,300 US dollars. It fell to the lowest level of 33,000 US dollars in January and rebounded to 46,000 US dollars, peaked, fell back to the second bottom of 34,300 US dollars, and rebounded to the present. It has been 8 weeks. Now the weekly line has not effectively broken. Before the break, this area is still a strong trend support.

Looking back at history, we can find that in the previous bull markets, when BTC fell to the green line area for the first time, there was often an oversold rebound. The 2014 bear market was an exception, which was a direct and effective break. The previous ones all rebounded and then fell back and finally broke through to accelerate the bottoming out. In extreme cases of accelerated bottoming out, there were three pins to the red line area. In 2018, the bear bottom fell to the middle area between the yellow line and the red line. The decline can be said to be relatively large. Recently, BTC has continued to be in the green line area, touching the rebound, then falling back, touching and rebounding again, and the rebound strength has a tendency to weaken. We must be prepared for the possibility of breaking through this area in the future and pay attention to risks. Research can also find that in the early stage, BTC rebounded from the bottom area and then rebounded. Once it broke through and stabilized in the upper green line area, it was often followed by a round of main rising market. The 2012-2013 bull market, the 2016-2017 bull market, the 2019 bull market and the current bull market all followed this trend, and we should continue to pay attention to it in the future.

The short-term daily line encountered resistance near the middle track of the previous double bottom upward channel. Only after breaking through this area can it be expected to test the pressure around 42,000. Currently, the RSI is still on the upward trend line. If it does not break, there will be a chance to attack again. However, the general direction is bearish, and the rebound will still be responded to by reducing positions at highs. The pressure is 42,000-42,500, and the strong pressure is 44,500-46,000.