The amount of Bitcoin that hasn't moved in 12-18 months hits a 2-year high, and analysts warn that "the plunge is not over yet"

Although the crypto market continues to suffer heavy losses, Bitcoin holders have shown their "diamond hands" (a term used to describe firm holdings) as the number of BTC held for 12-18 months hits a 2-year high.

Bitpush terminal data shows that Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market value, has fallen 11% in the past 24 hours to its lowest level since August 2021, and is currently trading at around $38,232. At the same time, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indexes also suffered losses. Cryptocurrencies and technology stocks fell at the same time this month, indicating an increasing correlation between the two, while gold - often hailed as a store of value and an inflation hedge - rose steadily by 0.3% this month.

In addition, investors are concerned about the possibility of more crypto regulation in the United States, as well as the impact of the Fed's balance sheet reduction and interest rate hikes on the entire market. Globally, other countries are also paying attention to crypto regulation. BitTorrent previously reported that the Russian Central Bank has proposed a ban on the use and mining of cryptocurrencies.

12-18 month BTC volume hits 2-year high

Amid the pessimism in the market, the bullish conviction of long-term holders is gradually increasing. CryptoQuant tracks the Bitcoin Sum Coin Age (SCA) indicator, which tracks and calculates the number of days on the chain tokens have been held since the last move, and divides them into different categories according to the length of holding. For example, if a coin has remained unmoved since 12 to 18 months ago, it will be classified in the 12 to 18 month holder category.

When the distribution of long-term holders rises, it means that recent accumulation has been strong. This trend is generally bullish for Bitcoin's price because it shows that a large number of holders are refusing to sell at current levels.

On the other hand, when the number of tokens belonging to short-term holders rises, it means that some of the original long-term holders have decided to sell. This trend can be negative for the price of cryptocurrencies.

The chart below shows the supply trend of tokens that have not been moved in 12-18 months (one of the long-term holder groups):

As shown in the chart, the amount of BTC that has not moved in 12-18 months has recently surged, reaching a 2-year high. The colored areas in the chart are the time periods when these holders bought coins.

Can we “get on board” now?

Recent price action has called into question the claim that Bitcoin is "digital gold." Gold is generally considered a low-volatility investment, but Bitcoin has shown unpredictable price swings, with a 17% drop since the beginning of January. The 100-day correlation between the Nasdaq 100 and Bitcoin is currently 0.4 (1 represents perfect correlation). Meanwhile, the correlation coefficient between gold and Bitcoin is only 0.008, indicating that they are only slightly moving in the same direction.

CNBC guest writer and founder of the "Bear Trap Report" Lawrence McDonald pointed out that one Bitcoin is now equivalent to a 20-ounce (about 567-gram) gold bar, a sharp drop from the peak of 37 ounces recorded in August. McDonald believes that when the ratio reaches 15 ounces, Bitcoin will be in the buy zone. He warned that Bitcoin's plunge is not over yet, and it is only "close" to the buy zone but has not yet arrived.

BitPush previously reported that Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz recently tweeted that given the further surge in 10-year U.S. Treasury yields, cryptocurrencies as risky assets will continue to be under pressure as they move in sync with U.S. stocks. Katie Stockton, founder of market research platform Fairlead Strategies, analyzed that $37,361 will become the main support level for Bitcoin. If it falls below the above price point, it may continue to fall back to the $30,000 level.

According to Coinglass data, more than $920 million in crypto positions were liquidated in the past 24 hours, with long positions accounting for more than 81% of this volume. Bitcoin has fallen more than 40% since its November peak of nearly $69,000, with its market value falling below $750 billion.