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I talked about my views on Chia mining in an article a few days ago. I didn’t expect that the development speed of Chia mining in recent days is so fast that it is unimaginable - it is so popular that hard drives are out of stock.
According to the real reflection of the market, hard drives are actually still available, but hard drive suppliers have seen such a huge demand for mining and have begun to hold back on their goods, thus creating the illusion that hard drives are "out of stock" on the market. I remember that when Filecoin started to become popular two years ago and last year, there didn’t seem to be such a serious shortage of hard drives. At that time, as long as you had money, you could basically buy computing power or mining machines. I think the main reason why Chia mining has become so popular this time is probably because of the bull market effect. Will this phenomenon continue? From my current understanding, I don’t see any reason why it will continue, or we need to continue to observe for a while. First of all, if we talk purely from the perspective of functionality, although both Chia and Filecoin are hard disk mining, there is really no comparison between the application scenarios of the two, and Chia is far behind Filecoin. Secondly, from the perspective of consensus, can Chia develop into the second Bitcoin? I think even if it can, it will have to go through several rounds of bull and bear cycles like Bitcoin, and be reborn like a phoenix. Now Chia has just gone a short distance in the bull market, so it is not clear whether it can survive the next several bull and bear cycles. I even think that even if Chia can really become the second Bitcoin, we can draw such a conclusion by referring to the past price trend of Bitcoin: even Bitcoin will fall from the top of the mountain to the foot of the mountain in a bear market, and Chia may not be able to escape this rule. So even if you are really optimistic about Chia, there is really no need to intervene at this time. We can wait until the bear market arrives and it falls to the foot of the mountain before calmly intervening. In Chia, I also saw an unavoidable problem that I saw in other “mining coins” such as Bitcoin and Filecoin: no matter how much the founders hoped that everyone could participate fairly and conveniently, as long as commercial interests appeared, the matter would eventually develop into a massive intervention of capital, a complete change in the mining landscape, and ultimately the departure of ordinary players. Satoshi Nakamoto's original intention in creating Bitcoin was to allow everyone to participate in mining using ordinary computers. However, as Bitcoin developed, ASIC mining machines emerged and ordinary computers were completely excluded from the mining process. The original intention of creating Filecoin was to hope that everyone could contribute their idle hard disks and make full use of the idle space in the world for valuable storage. But now, no miner will use idle hard disks. They will only use advanced hard disks with increasingly powerful performance and larger storage. Individual players can hardly compete with miners in mining. Even the Filecoin project has given up supporting individual miners and instead relies on large miners. Similarly, the original intention of Chia is to hope that everyone can use idle hard disks to participate in mining, changing the way Bitcoin is mined, which wastes energy and hardware. However, now, there are almost no idle hard disks involved in mining, and all are first-hand high-performance hard disks. To some extent, this has become an activity that wastes hardware and energy, and has long violated the original intention of the project founder. If the project continues to develop and really becomes the second Bitcoin, I am afraid that the specialization of mining and the elimination of individual players are inevitable. Therefore, I believe that even if new mining projects emerge in the future, as long as the activities have commercial value, their outcomes will probably follow this rule. Therefore, as ordinary investors, when we look at a new thing, if we are not lucky and miss the first taste of it, we might as well stop and think calmly whether it is worth participating now. If we really want to participate in the long term, think about whether there will be opportunities in the future. If we ask ourselves these questions more often, we will be much calmer and more composed in our view of things. |
