Bitcoin Holdings Weekly Report | Market sentiment has long been consistent, and institutions accurately predict short-term turning points

On March 13, the CFTC released the latest CME Bitcoin Futures Weekly Report (March 3-9). In the latest statistical period, BTC has gained about $5,000. After a short correction not long ago, it has returned to above the integer of $50,000. The rapid recovery of the market once again confirmed the correctness of the large institutional accounts mentioned in the previous weekly report to arrange long orders in advance. Institutional investors have once again accurately "predicted" the market trend.

The total number of open positions rebounded from 8,068 to 8,785 in the latest data, breaking away from the 21-week low in the previous statistical cycle. However, the recovery of market participation is still slightly "hesitant", and the current value remains at a relatively low level. At least from the change in this value, all types of accounts other than large institutions are still relatively restrained in restarting the long position.

From the perspective of sub-item data, the largest dealer's long position further increased from 376 to 395, the short position slightly rebounded from 137 to 164, and the long and short (hedged) positions slightly decreased from 42 to 41. Although the dealer account did not continue the net long position adjustment of the previous statistical period in the latest statistical period, the increase in long orders continued. Therefore, this synchronous increase in long and short positions can be understood as a further increase in the "interest" in participating in the market. The overall optimistic attitude has not changed. It can be considered that large institutions still have more expectations for the further rise of BTC in the future market.

The long positions held by asset management institutions further increased from 323 to 331, the short positions decreased from 643 to 619, and the two-way positions increased from 0 to 15. In the latest statistical period, asset management institutions "took over" dealer accounts and made clear net long positions. This is also the first time that such accounts have made net long position adjustments after a full month. It can be said that asset management institutions have put an end to this recent round of corrections with practical actions.

In the latest statistical period, the long positions of leveraged fund accounts rebounded from 1757 to 2055, the short positions rose from 5563 to 6148, and the two-way positions rose from 572 to 664. It is not surprising that leveraged funds increased their positions by a considerable amount in the latest statistical period. As the price rose and regained the 50,000 integer mark, the bearish attitude of leveraged funds in the past period of time has been significantly reversed, which to some extent also represents the emotional change of the majority of market participants in the latest statistical period.

In terms of large-scale positions, long positions rebounded from 2419 to 2573, short positions rebounded from 168 to 186, and two-way positions fell from 114 to 76. In the latest statistical period, large-scale investors also increased their long and short positions in a similar way to leveraged funds, showing an optimistic attitude towards the future market. As one of the two types of accounts that most clearly carried out a partial cooling of positions in the previous statistical period, the change in attitude of large investors in the latest statistical period was also very "decisive".

In terms of retail positions, long positions rebounded from 2465 to 2635, and short positions rebounded from 829 to 872. Retail accounts also clearly increased their long and short positions in the latest statistical period. The rise in the market has quickly restored the confidence of retail investors who have been optimistic about the market outlook for a long time.

Market sentiment has basically completely shifted to a bullish state in the latest statistical period. The "divine prediction" given by large institutions in advance of long orders has played a driving role in the overall market atmosphere with the cooperation of the market. After another verification of effectiveness, the next time large institutions make "contrarian" position adjustments again, they should receive more attention.