Is the “four-year halving” the reason for the surge in Bitcoin?

During the bear market in the past two years, people often asked: When will the next bull market come? The most common answer is: Let's talk about it in 2020. If you are surprised and ask why the time is so clear, you will probably get an answer like this: Because Bitcoin "halves every four years."
This year, Bitcoin’s price has increased nearly sevenfold from $3,700 at the beginning of the year to over $24,000 yesterday, which seems to verify the previous answer of “halving in four years”.
So, is there really any relationship between Bitcoin halving and Bitcoin price?
Let’s first look at historical data and review the situations during the two halvings in history.

In 2012, the production of Bitcoin was halved for the first time, from 50 Bitcoins each time to 25 Bitcoins. As can be seen from the figure, the price fluctuations were not obvious one week before and after the halving.

In mid-2016, Bitcoin production was halved again, from 25 bitcoins per time to 12.5 bitcoins. A week before the halving, the price of Bitcoin was $650, and a week later it was $675. There was no significant change in the price of BTC before and after the halving.
Countless people have tried to prove the relationship between the two. But we cannot assert that there is an inevitable connection between Bitcoin halving and price trends.
What is the “four-year halving”?
As the pioneer of virtual digital currency, Bitcoin will "grow" a certain number of new bitcoins approximately every 10 minutes until the total number reaches 21 million.
So how much does it "grow" each time? When designing the Bitcoin production protocol, Satoshi Nakamoto followed the following two rules:
1. Initially, 50 bitcoins are generated every 10 minutes (the 10-minute interval is guaranteed to be stable by the algorithm);
2. After every 210,000 times, the single output of Bitcoin will be halved, from 50, 25, 12.5... and so on, until the total amount reaches 21 million.
According to the above rules, we only need to list the formula to find out the time required for each halving (210,000 times):
210000÷(365*24*6)
Note: Because it is generated every 10 minutes, the number of times per year is 365*24*6
The answer is exactly 4 (years), which is the origin of the saying "half the time in four years".
According to the halving rule, the total output will also be halved every 4 years, and this decay is very rapid. In fact, more than 17 million bitcoins have been produced in the ten years since the birth of Bitcoin, accounting for 83% of the total 21 million. (Block Eye)