[Contract Daily] BTC above 15,000: Let profits run, hold coins and wait for new highs

Market Overview:

CoinWorld Research Institute:

It seems that nothing can stop BTC. Although the results of the US election have not yet been finalized, and the two leaders, the King of Understanding and the King of Sleep, have taken turns to lead, all kinds of assets no longer care about who is in the lead or who is elected. There is only one word: rise first and then talk.

Among all the assets that have soared, BTC once again took the lead. First, it completely trampled 14,000, and this morning it began to try to capture 16,000. The most important background for BTC's rise is the increase in funds and institutions entering the market. The representative event is the continuous increase in the number of BTC held by Grayscale Fund. But the core factor behind all this (including gold and stock markets) is still the new round of fiscal stimulus (even monetary stimulus) plan in the United States.

While people are still waiting for the results of the US election, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting went on as scheduled. Powell's words after the meeting further confirmed the market's stimulus expectations. Due to the trend of the epidemic breaking out again, the prospects for economic recovery have become uncertain again. Powell emphasized that fiscal stimulus plans take precedence over monetary policy, and if the epidemic worsens further, the monetary policy toolbox may be further opened.

Since the epidemic crisis came first and the US central bank spoke later, all assets should rise first. The logic of US stocks is that fiscal stimulus can alleviate corporate debt problems, stimulate household consumption expenditures, and boost consumer companies' profits. The logic of gold and Bitcoin is that inflation expectations are rising again, and anti-inflation products are popular.

By the way, let me talk about the progress of the election. While supporters of the two factions were arguing about whether there was a problem with the ballots in Nevada, Biden had already caught up with Trump in Georgia (16 electoral votes). Currently, there are still 1% of the votes to be counted. Perhaps before the results of Nevada (6 electoral votes) are announced, Trump can directly announce his coronation.

In terms of the specific market conditions, we are still concerned about the trading volume after the surge. As can be seen from the figure below, although the price has surged, the overall market trading volume has not skyrocketed. After the price surges, it will inevitably attract followers and sellers to cash in profits. The overall liquidity of the BTC market is not particularly good, and it is very likely that the price will be smashed down all at once. However, in the context of the overall trading volume not skyrocketing, we believe that there is still room for BTC to rise, and a short-term decline in volume may even be a time to replenish stocks.

The market environment has warmed up, and mainstream currencies have also begun to perform. ETH and LTC both performed well in the rise last night. ETH was the first to pass the high of 10.22 under the support of 2.0. We have always believed that ETH can at least test the high of 488 in this round of market. According to the Fibonacci regression line, there is a small resistance above the price at around 450.

LTC also has a strong rebound momentum. What needs to be focused on now is whether the price can break through the red line resistance in the figure. If successful, it can be used as a basis for entry when the price falls back to around US$60.

While paying attention to traditional PayPal-positive currencies, LINK should not be ignored. Since the end of September, although LINK's rebound has been weak, the overall upward structure remains good. As the most resilient currency among mainstream currencies, it is very likely to start its performance after BTC and ETH enter a period of rising rest.

OKEx:

Analysts said that as BTC prices hit new highs, as of 10:30 on November 6, according to OKEx trading big data, the ratio of long and short positions of BTC contracts was 0.96, and the number of long and short positions in the market was balanced; the quarterly contract basis was around $300, the perpetual contract funding rate was around 0, and the total position of delivery and perpetual contracts remained at the $1 billion platform, and the strength of the long army remained strong; in terms of BTC delivery and perpetual contract elite positions, the short account ratio was 57%, and the short position ratio was 25.13%, and the elite account short side was dominant. Keep an eye on the changes in the positions of large households. From the perspective of option contract data, the ratio of active buying volume of bullish/bearish is 1.48, and active bullish buying volume is slightly dominant.

Huobi Research Club:

According to the data from Huobi trading platform, BTC continued the upward trend of the previous two days and surged to 15986.60USDT. Due to the large increase in recent days, the market may have a certain demand for a correction. From the daily level, the previous resistance levels have basically been broken, and the bulls are likely to challenge the highest point in 2017. It may be due to the impact of the increased expectations of the depreciation of the US dollar that BTC will rise more smoothly. Pay attention to the continuation of the upward trend and the long-short battle at the integer mark of 16000USDT during the day.

According to the data from Huobi trading platform, ETH had a certain amount of long and short competition at the 400USDT integer mark last night, and then fell slightly to a low of 407.16USDT. This morning, there was a wave of large-scale rise, reaching a high of 429.93USDT. From a technical perspective, ETH has completely broken through the previous downward resistance line. This rise is mainly caused by the rise of Bitcoin. At present, for compliant institutions, they will allocate some ETH while allocating Bitcoin, which can be seen from Grayscale's ETH increase. Pay attention to the long and short competition at the previous high point during the day.

In terms of contracts, Huobi contract big data shows that BTC contract holdings have increased slightly, contract trading volume has increased, and the contract market is relatively active. The basis of delivery contracts has increased slightly, and the funding rate of perpetual contracts has turned from negative to positive again.

ETH contract holdings increased slightly, contract trading volume increased slightly, and the contract market was relatively active. The basis of delivery contracts increased slightly, and the perpetual contract funding rate did not change.

The price of USDT in Huobi Global OTC market is 6.56 yuan.

Gate.io:

According to Gate.io contract transaction data, as of 10:30 on November 6, the BTC/USDT perpetual contract price was $15,753.80, and the spot price was $15,786.56. The perpetual contract price rose by 12.32% compared with yesterday. The BTC/USDT perpetual contract funding rate (only the settlement every 8 hours) was (0.000589) at 08:00, and (0.0001) at 00:00 in the previous period.

The BTC long-short ratio in 30 minutes is 59.25%:40.75%. In terms of positions and transactions, the total position reached 21,634,954 USDT, and the transaction volume in the past 24 hours rose to 294,673,734 USDT. From the 30-minute line, the BTC contract price continued to rise. Even if it fell back in the early morning, it did not break through the BOLL band price average line. Then it ran close to the upper track and currently reached above $15,700. The opening also has a tendency to expand, indicating that this round of rising market is likely to be not over yet. The continuous rise has caused the MACD indicator double lines to cross upward again at a high level. The risk of short-term correction is increasing, but the bulls are still in the upper position. The intraday market may experience a small correction, and the overall market may continue to break upward after further stabilization. Please pay attention to risk control.

Matcha Research Institute:

BTC hourly wave pattern continues to accelerate upward, hitting the 16000 range, and hitting a new high again in the short term. For intraday trading, buy on dips and do not blindly guess the top and sell short. The pressure range is 16200-16280, and the support range is 15500-15420.

58COIN:

BTC/USDT perpetual contract closed with a real big positive line yesterday, and the bulls completely occupied the dominant position; after opening today, it retreated to around 14650 and continued to rise. The current price is around 15800

Today’s analysis:

Weekly chart: This week is a big positive line, with an amplitude of nearly 20% and an increase of about 14%. Bulls completely dominate the market; various technical indicators are seriously blunted and basically have no reference value. The MA5 moving average runs to 13062. Daily chart: Currently, it is a medium positive line with upper and lower shadows. Pay attention to today's closing situation; MACD double lines hit a new high and have been blunted; MA5 moving average runs to 14367, which is far away from the current price. The possibility of time or space adjustment increases. 4-hour chart: 10 positive lines are closed in a row, with good sustainability; MACD double lines are still blunted; MA5 moving average runs to around 15230, and the moving average combination is arranged in a strong bullish trend. In general, the market has entered a bullish frenzy, and contract operators should pay attention to risk aversion.

Support level: 15200-14700-14200;

Pressure level: 16000——16360——16930.

Contract Emperor:

According to the data from Hetongdi, the long ratio of BTC contracts in the last 24 hours was 50.60%, and the short ratio was 49.40%. Among the mainstream contract exchanges, Huobi's quarterly long ratio was 50.75%, and the short ratio was 49.25%; OKEx's quarterly long ratio was 48.23%, and the short ratio was 51.77%; BitMEX's contract long ratio was 51.83%, and the short ratio was 48.17%.

According to the BTC funding rate statistics of Hetongdi, the real-time rate on OKEx has reached 0.094%, which is 3 times higher than the normal value.

According to the Panic & Greed Index of Hetongdi, after November 4, the BTC price and the Greed Index both soared. The Greed Index once rose from 72 to the current 90, which is extremely greedy.

The above data show that the market sentiment has been completely mobilized by the surge in Bitcoin, and the bullish sentiment is very serious. We need to be careful about sudden pullbacks during the bull market and guard against stop losses from chasing long positions at high levels.

Contract market data:

1. Trading volume and open interest of each exchange:

Source: Skew

2. The ratio of long and short positions held by major exchanges

OKEx long and short position ratio:

Source: OKEx

Binance long and short position ratio:

Source: Contract Emperor

BTC continued to rise, and the long-short ratio of both OKEx and Binance exchanges showed an upward trend, indicating traders' optimistic sentiment to chase the rise.

3. Long-short ratio of holdings in major exchanges

OKEx elite long and short average positions:

Source: OKEx

Binance’s large traders’ long-short ratio

Source: Golden Fruit

Huobi Elite’s long-short ratio

Source: Golden Fruit

The elite positions of the top exchanges show the differences among investors when the market fluctuates. Compared with yesterday, the elite positions of each exchange have changed a lot. Binance's elite positions continue to show a long-dominant pattern and have a strengthening trend; Huobi's elite positions have turned to short positions in the last hour; OKEx's elite positions have shown a short-dominant pattern since yesterday and have further strengthened today.

Important Message:

1. The United States is seeking to confiscate more than $1 billion worth of Bitcoin associated with the Silk Road and is prosecuting in this regard.

2. Grayscale's total crypto asset management size increased to US$8.6 billion.

3. Huobi has started to adjust the cross-chain positions of 40 million USDT from 23:00 Beijing time on November 5.

4. Russia's new bill may require crypto traders to report their income to the tax authorities.

5. Venezuela has launched a state-run crypto exchange, VEX.

6. As Bitcoin continues to rise, MicroStrategy and Square's investments have both earned profits of more than 30%.

about Us:

Founded in August 2018, the CoinWorld Research Institute mainly focuses on technical research, industry analysis, application innovation, model exploration, etc. in the field of blockchain. We hope to build a research platform covering the entire blockchain industry chain, provide a solid theoretical foundation and trend judgment for blockchain industry professionals, and promote the development of the entire blockchain industry.