FILECOIN is in chaos when it goes online. How to invest in the game of interests among all parties?

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Filecoin’s mainnet was officially launched yesterday, but everything seems to be changing.

Originally, after a long wait, the launch of the mainnet would be a great joyous event, but the poor practices of the project party are hurting all parties.

The long-distance girlfriend I have been dating for 5 years is finally going to meet, and even hold a grand wedding. Various exchanges, miners, and media have prepared grand celebrations and launch ceremonies. There is anticipation in the tension, and trepidation in the excitement. Some of the guests (retail investors) bought FIL6 futures on small exchanges, some opened contracts, and some looked for exchanges to buy the first-hand spot...

However, yesterday the mainnet was officially launched, and the lively scene that was originally expected was in chaos. The various exchanges were like best men at a wedding, using all kinds of tricks. The prices of various exchanges varied greatly. Some small exchanges used data to push the price up to tens of thousands of yuan in an instant. Some exchanges began to limit prices, some contracts could not be closed, and the market trends of more exchanges were relatively normal, but the price trends plummeted.

In the cryptocurrency world, there was once a saying that missing out is more painful than chasing high prices. Now I suggest that rational investors do the opposite. When investing, stability comes first, and the price is not important.

I no longer chase after any hot projects, and I don’t care how much it will rise after it goes online. I don’t worry at all that I will miss out because I don’t have the spot of a certain coin.

Before Buffett invests in a target, he always observes it for a long time. The time to enter the market is usually not when the company's stock price is very low, but when he thinks it is very good - there are many kinds of very good times, including when the price is lower than the value, such as the price of coins after 312 and 94; it also includes when it is fully recognized by the market and all expectations are stable and upward.

However, the investment methods for these two investment situations cannot be the same. The former can be heavily invested, while the latter can only be lightly invested - because what we see is often what the market wants us to see, or even what the project party wants us to see, which is not necessarily the truth.

Many times when every author and every WeChat group is talking about a coin being good, it does not mean that the coin is really good. Maybe everyone has fallen into the trap of collective unconsciousness. In the former black swan event, it becomes clear at a glance whether the price of all coins is higher than the value or the price is lower than the value.

1. Harvested Miners

I have been keeping an eye on the FILECOIN project, but I generally feel that the project has never been very popular among the people. Now that the mainnet is launched, the vision of getting rich quickly is right in front of us. I can feel the excitement and urgency of the project team through the screen.

In the past, because the FILECOIN project team postponed the launch of the project countless times, the mining machines purchased by many investors became scrap metal. This is like a promised date that is repeatedly stood up, and the flowers prepared have to be thrown into the trash can.

When the final meeting was about to take place, the other party suddenly asked for a huge gift, and all the mining machine parties were furious. Many mining machine vendors who had always been very supportive began to express great disappointment recently. Because according to the latest policy, if you want to mine, you must pledge a large amount of FIL coins, and these coins are not even enough for mining output according to the current circulation - it seems to be good for the market?

But have you ever thought about it? The project team is holding the mining machine manufacturers in the ecosystem hostage, as well as the retail investors who have invested in mining machine manufacturers. Is this approach really in line with the spirit of decentralization? Have you ever seen Vitalik Buterin do market value management?

I personally dislike projects that manage market value. Why? Because if you want to manage, either you are not confident in the project, or you have only one purpose, which is to manage it well, then let more people enter the market, and finally reap the benefits. Otherwise, is market value management for charity?

At present, many coins that were agreed to be locked have not been locked yet, and according to the official data, the current flow of these coins is for market value management.

Everyone has their own value judgment. The following content comes from a mining machine manufacturer I trust. He expressed a strong sense of disappointment in the group. To avoid too many pictures in the article, I directly quote the text:

——The official team has disappointed us. The probability of forks is increasing. In order to avoid forks this time, the official has come up with a dirty trick, which is to take drastic measures to force the launch.

In order to prevent large miners from forking, the official team transferred all the test computing power data of the first and second space races. For its own interests, the official gave too many advantages to large miners, which in turn caused class solidification in the process of adding fresh blood to the entire ecosystem. It has to be said that Protocol Labs acted a bit short-sighted.

These tactics are too centralized! 1T of new computing power requires about 7 Fils. If 100T is added every day, 700 Fils will be needed. What kind of investment will this be after the launch? We calculate based on the average price of 500 yuan per FiL, which is equivalent to an extra 350,000 yuan per day! The key is that these 700 coins are not mortgaged once and for all. If 100T is added the next day, another 350,000 will be needed. On the third day, more will be needed.

In order to start making a profit, it is necessary to continue staking every day for 100 days, which means that a miner has to spend 35 million on top of the 40 million to buy a mining machine!

Almost all the big miners, whether they spent a lot of money to buy Fil coins through ICO or the hundreds of thousands of coins rewarded by the test network, could not last for a few days and were gone.

What will happen if you don’t have any coins? You can only buy high-priced coins in the secondary market, or launch lending. Whoever mines will pay the interest. Now the coins produced by each T of new computing power are not as many as the coins that need to be mortgaged, and the coins produced are released linearly every 180 days, so the coins that can actually be received are far less than the coins that need to be mortgaged.

So, what will happen next is that before the 15th, all manufacturers will be running for their lives like in a battle royale, biting and tearing each other to get onto the island of survival. After the 15th, it will be as if they were hit by the sunflower acupoint-pressing hand, and everyone will stop and enter the Ice Age.

The above content is the words of the person in charge of the mining machine project.

Many friends may not understand it, but the general meaning is what I interpreted above. In order to maintain the market value, the FIL project changes its policies every day, which has a strong sense of centralization.

Yesterday, a screenshot of a WeChat Moments was widely circulated. In the picture, several people were said to be online saying that they were worth billions or something like that. It was FILECOIN. Behind the sudden wealth, how many people suffered huge losses?

What the project party is doing now is actually a form of kidnapping of small and medium-sized miners. Everyone goes to the secondary market together to buy coins and pull up the price. This neither reflects the spirit of decentralization nor the spirit of contract. It also reveals that the excitement about pulling up the price is greater than the interest in the project itself. Please note that I am not talking about the price of this project. I cannot predict the price. Although I have said these things, I cannot predict whether the price will be pulled up or whether there will be enough retail investors chasing high prices. So let me emphasize that I only share information and you make your own investment decisions.

Some mining machine investors said: "I want to return the machine, it's too deceptive", because various mining machine project parties currently have to ask retail mining machine investors to buy more FIL coins according to official instructions.

On October 13, Li Haotian, CEO of Diancun Technology, publicly stated in a Douyin live broadcast that all customers need to purchase 350 FIL as pre-collateral after the mainnet is launched, otherwise only 0.5 FIL can be mined per month. The group exploded, and some people questioned in the group: "Do we need to buy pledge coins for the mining machines we bought?" "If we really need to buy 350 coins for pledge, then we can just return the mining machines!"

This scene is happening everywhere.

At present, mining machine project parties that accept investment from investors are faced with an extremely difficult choice. Either they shamelessly ask investors for additional investment like the official ones, and let them take over at high prices in the secondary market, or they pay out of their own pockets and buy coins at high prices in the secondary market - this may cause some project parties to go bankrupt.

With this official approach, if you are a mining machine project party, you were originally an important member of the project ecosystem, but now you are being treated extremely badly. For example, you have spent 1 million and waited for several years to marry a princess, but now you find out that she is not a princess at all, and they ask you to add another 1 million or you can’t marry her. Do you just leave and admit defeat, or continue to add more?

This is a difficult and even tragic decision. If the betrothal gift is not returned, you can go to court; if the mining machine is scrapped, you can only defend your rights.

2. Confused retail investors

In this process, retail investors are extremely weak and helpless. Before the launch, many retail investors invested in cloud mining machines because they were optimistic about FILECOIN, and some people bought them at high prices in the secondary market. The so-called cloud mining machine means that as long as you spend money to buy computing power from some places, you can mine stably.

I have always felt that retail investors should not participate in cloud mining and physical mining, as 99% of them will lose money. Physical mining machines have no technical and scale advantages, and they may fall behind after a short period of mining, and there is no hope of making a profit.

Cloud mining machines may have a series of known risks such as the project party running away, withholding money, etc. For example, if mining is very popular and profitable, they will tell you that it has been shut down due to a malfunction and you cannot mine, and return the cash you invested for several months to you. If mining is a loss, they will give you the mining machine and say sorry for the loss, and you can take the mining machine.

There are also many unknown risks. For example, the FILECOIN project party's frequent changes of orders and forced bundling behavior will force all retail investors to pull up the market for the project party, which is very deceptive.

At present, the risk of retail investors in cloud computing power rights protection is increasing sharply. Previously, there were many websites selling cloud computing power, such as Golden Computing Cloud, Mars Cloud Mine, Feng Exchange, Hufu, Yaochi, which were everywhere. However, due to the change of the project party's policy, if the computing power that investors can get from their investment at that time will be sharply reduced, they either have to continue to add money or they may not be able to mine coins.

An investor said: "If I can't dig it out, I will go and defend my rights!"

Two group members asked me two things in the past two days, which made me feel a little anxious and heartbroken. One group member said that he bought YFI for more than 30,000 US dollars, what should he do now? He said that he borrowed hundreds of thousands of dollars to buy it. At this time, I can only tell him to read my article and not to chase high prices in the future. I have no way to predict the market price in the short term.

Another group member recently took over FIL futures at an exchange. He was a complete novice and took it at a high price at an unknown small exchange (there are price differences among exchanges. If you take over futures, just choose the one with the lowest price and is relatively reliable). He was waiting for the mainnet to go online and pull it up, but now it has fallen and he is very panicked.

Why are we always so anxious to follow the hot spots? One of the group members said that this may be the reason. He said, "The price of Da Yu Fu has increased by thousands or tens of thousands of times. I hope that this coin will increase by ten times. Is it impossible to do this?"

People’s hearts are too crowded, and hidden dangers are lurking within.

3. The essence of investment

We come to the cryptocurrency world to make money, and my articles have always been closely related to this point. But in the cryptocurrency world for many years, I have also taken many detours and been harvested in various ways.

Now I understand that we must enter the spot market when the tide recedes, and we must wait until 99% of people are desperate before entering the market. Only at this time, we have enough confidence to hold a large position. At other times, especially chasing hot spots, we often pay a heavy price - we must accept that we have missed out, and we must not accept that we have been harvested. Steady returns are the most reliable and the most terrifying.

I am currently waiting for the right time in the spot market, working very hard to accumulate more OTC funds. I usually feel the weakness of my human nature in dangerous contract transactions, and at the same time, I continue to strengthen my trading learning. I understand the importance of stability. I have watched my tens of thousands of yuan principal increase to hundreds of thousands or even nearly one million yuan in just ten minutes.

But in fact, I have emphasized several times that if you can get a stable 100% return every year and invest 100,000 yuan, after five years, you will have more than 3 million yuan.

Five years is not a long time, and a 100% return is not difficult - I wouldn't dare to say this if I were not in the cryptocurrency circle, because many people would emphasize that Buffett's return was only 25%. Let's not talk about big principles, just talk about practical things.

In the cryptocurrency world, it is really easy to enter the market when 99% of people are afraid, buy a little bit, and leave the market after getting 100% of the principal. The key is the timing of entry. In yesterday's article, I summarized the mentality of those who chase hot spots as "what if it succeeds?", and compared it to one of the 13 villagers who supported the peasant to become emperor. However, there are still people who only see the possibility of rising. You must think correctly and independently.

Today I talked about many problems with FIL, but will its price fall? No one knows whether the capital problem is serious or not, but it can rise happily, such as the recent plates below, which have risen a lot, and the final outcome is also very interesting, Jiang Taigong fishing, willing to take the bait.

I don't hoard coins, I only do trading, and I regard trading as a lifelong pursuit. You hoard coins, I choose to hoard technology. In fact, my loyal fans can feel the tremendous progress I have made in the past year from the richness and content of my articles - I feel like I have been reborn.

If you want to chase hot spots, you must use only small funds, just like if you chase YFI, you can invest a few thousand or a few hundred yuan, and it is not a big problem if it goes to zero - why be greedy if you don't have a full hand? Because apart from YFI, how many imitations have disappeared? Yesterday, many friends who opened FIL contracts faced many difficulties such as price limits and inability to close positions. In fact, it is understandable because the market is not stable and there are too few counterparties. Just pick one that can close positions in seconds and without slippage.

If you must buy FIL spot, it is recommended not to go to the most popular large exchanges where the price is the highest, nor to go to unknown small exchanges where it may be difficult to withdraw coins. You can go to Matcha to buy new coins. Since the beginning of this year, the returns on buying new coins at Matcha with your eyes closed have been very high, which is almost a must-have for novices.

4. Three rules for following hot topics

If you want to learn, learn from the best. Peter Lynch is one of the most successful fund managers in the world. How successful is he? Some people say that his contribution to the fund industry is like Jordan's contribution to basketball. The Magellan Fund he managed achieved an annual compound return of 29%, which broke the record of the US mutual fund industry.

He summarized three rules of investment, which he would like to share with you:

The first rule is to avoid hot stocks in hot industries. This may sound a little unreasonable at first, just like the popular saying in the past two years: "If you stand on the wind, even pigs can fly." Many people are keen on chasing pigs on the wind. Why does Peter Lynch tell us to stay away from hot stocks in hot industries?

The first reason is that the hottest stocks in hot industries have already received the most extensive attention. Even every investor will hear people talking about these stocks on the subway on their way to and from get off work. Since the attention is already so high, it means that there will be very few new buyers in the future. As the number of new buyers decreases, the possibility of the stock price turning to decline will become greater and greater.

The second reason is that hot stocks are destined to be overvalued, and as time goes by, the bubble will eventually burst. For example, in 2000, the US Internet stocks bubble burst after being overheated. The Nasdaq index fell by more than half in a short period of time, and the prices of many stocks fell by 90%.

The third reason is that a lot of money will flow into a hot industry, leading to excessive competition, which may eventually result in no company in the industry making money. For example, in the 1960s, Xerox, the leading company in the copying industry, was arguably the hottest stock in the U.S. market, and many analysts were extremely optimistic about it. In 1972, when Xerox's stock price was as high as $170, analysts asserted that Xerox would continue to grow indefinitely. But then, competitors such as Japan's Canon, IBM, and Kodak entered the copying industry, and soon there were 20 companies whose copiers could achieve the same good copying results as Xerox, and Xerox's stock price later fell by more than 80%.

The second commandment is: be careful of companies that are touted as the "next". There are often companies in the market that are touted as the next IBM, the next Intel, or the next Disney. Peter Lynch believes that these companies almost never really become the star companies that they are role models for. Because in many industries, the first place often gets most of the market dividends, and the profitability of the second place is often far worse than that of the first place. What's more, many of these companies that are touted as the next X or X cannot even become the second place.

The third commandment is : Beware of stocks that whisper. If you have ever bought stocks, you may have encountered such a situation, a friend said to you mysteriously: I am going to tell you a big dark horse, don't tell anyone. But unfortunately, these stocks that whispered brought almost all painful lessons to Peter Lynch. For example, the stock of the National Health Care Center fell from $14 per share to 50 cents; the stock of Sun World Airlines fell from $8 per share to 50 cents, and so on. Peter Lynch believes that these stocks that whisper often tell a magical story, such as this company's products can cure AIDS, that company's products can solve oil shortages, etc., but the company itself has no income, and most of the magical stories they tell ultimately cannot be realized. Therefore, investing in such companies requires great risks and should be avoided as much as possible.

Don't touch the hot companies in the hot industries, the companies that are touted as the next X, and the companies that are whispering. Each of these rules is a lesson that Peter Lynch paid a lot of money to learn, and it is worth remembering carefully.