Although it has been accompanied by doubts and pursuits during its development, Bitcoin has been gaining more and more recognition and influence in the world over the past 10 years. Since the beginning of this year, with the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic, the outlook for global economic development is worrying. Even after the stimulus measures taken by central banks represented by the Federal Reserve, the global capital market has experienced a roller coaster ride, but the simple stimulus effect without physical support is not ideal. After September, the global capital and product markets have adjusted again, with a tendency to turn downward. Nevertheless, products with financial characteristics that surpass sovereign currency concepts recorded good gains at the time, mainly including gold and Bitcoin. Gold has recently entered a correction period, but the annual increase is still more than 20%; in fact, the increase of Bitcoin is even higher than that of gold. Even if calculated based on the price after the correction at that time, the price of Bitcoin has increased by $3,750 in a year, an increase of 51.94%; if calculated based on the lowest price of more than $4,000 in March, the annual fluctuation of Bitcoin exceeds 300%, far surpassing the increase of silver in the commodity market. At that time, Bitcoin was also in a correction period, and the price had fallen from more than $12,000 to around $10,000. The 10,000-point mark below seemed to be in jeopardy, but judging from the trend at that time, the market may still maintain a strong trend in the future. First of all, Bitcoin has started a digital currency precedent, and it seems to have gradually turned from widespread doubt to recognition. In August 2013, Germany announced that it recognized the legal status of Bitcoin and included it in the national regulatory system. Germany is the first country in the world to recognize the legal status of Bitcoin. Since then, Japan and other countries have also recognized the legalization of Bitcoin. According to recent mainstream media reports, the Norwegian Government Pension Fund has begun to increase its holdings of Bitcoin. So far, the sovereign fund has indirectly invested in and held 577.6 Bitcoins. The increase in the holdings of Bitcoin by the Norwegian Government Pension Fund shows that Bitcoin is becoming one of the mainstream assets of global institutions, and people are beginning to realize the importance of holding fixed-value assets. Secondly, under the influence of the COVID-19 epidemic, the already fragile global economy has been further damaged. At this time, the Federal Reserve has launched quantitative easing as expected, and this year it has launched an unlimited asset purchase plan. After accelerating the printing of money, many investors have begun to seek changes, and the proportion of standard asset allocation has also entered a reshuffle stage. Safe-haven assets such as Bitcoin, gold, silver, and government bonds have once again been recognized by investors. This is also the main reason for the rise in gold, silver, and Bitcoin this year. In addition, although the US dollar began to rebound from a low level, its continued upward foundation may not be solid, because the long-term strong pattern of the current price of the US dollar does not seem to be conducive to the interests of the Federal Reserve itself. The recent rebound of the US dollar index may be more reflected in the fact that the Federal Reserve is unable to take more drastic stimulus measures on the eve of the election, and on the other hand, the market is more cautious about the uncertainty in the election. From the above brief analysis, we can see that Bitcoin may still remain strong in the future after a correction. What do you think? (Jintou.com) |