New "94" Bitcoin falls below $10,000. Will there be a stampede in DeFi?

1 Bitcoin breaks 10,000 again

Yesterday, gold broke, US stocks fell and A-shares followed suit. Affected by the overall environment, Bitcoin fell 12% and broke through 10,000 again. All leverages of more than 10 times were liquidated. In the last 24 hours, the liquidation reached 1.1 billion US dollars. The average Bitcoin liquidation was 200,000 yuan.

The usually strong DeFi sector plummeted, with the leading LINK plummeting 20%, the popular SUSHI SUSHI cut in half, and as of 10 o'clock, the first uncle fell 7%, the second uncle fell 30%, and the fifth uncle fell by more than half.

We still need to analyze and explain the reasons for the sharp drop in hindsight. Is the bull market over? Probably not. The fundamentals have not changed, the US economy has not recovered, the bull market has to continue, Trump has not been elected, and the US stock market cannot fall sharply at this time.

2Fundamental explanation for the decline

Check out the news: The Bank of England said it would issue digital currency, and Russia made some small legal moves. Decentralization needs a revolution, and centralization has joined the revolutionary ranks one by one.

Let’s take a look at the analysis: DeFi is hot, and most of the locked coins come from exchanges. If this continues, a run is not impossible. The best way to limit withdrawals is to lock in. DeFi locked coins have decreased by $700 million in the past 24 hours.

Big investors are selling off. The day before yesterday, Huobi and OKEX alone sold $120 million worth of BTC quarterly contracts in large orders. Yesterday, Huobi also sold $125 million worth of ETH in large orders.

It’s 94 again. Many cryptocurrency traders, especially the old investors, can only remember more than 7 seconds. The fear of 94 is deep in their bones. If there is consistency, there will be consistent operations. The same is true for the stock market.

(Picture from the Internet)

There are many truths and many news, but which one is the truth? As consumers at the end of the news, it is difficult for us to grasp it, so technical analysis is still reliable. After all, the K-line is drawn with money. There are also traces of large orders.

3 Technical analysis and speculation

As the most well-known and largest digital currency, Bitcoin has the greatest influence on its K-line trend, similar to the stock market. Even DeFi, which has an independent trend, has to wait for it to stabilize. The only one that may go in the opposite direction is Sun Ge’s TRON series, which is a centralized operation and crazy pull.

According to the Chaos Theory, a divergence market must reverse. The area of ​​the green column of the first rising macd at the daily level is much larger than the area of ​​the green column of the second rising macd, which is a typical divergence. The reversal also returns to the center as the theory says.

Although the Chaos Theory does not advocate prediction and focuses on following, the prediction accuracy is also good. There is a high probability that the market will go through "Guess Trend 1" and consolidate and fall in the center (between 8805 and 10183). There is also a small probability of Trend 2.

In addition, the panic index has risen from 22 to 36 this time, from 24 to 44 in June, and from 13 to 85 in March. It can still rise. Buffett's tricks can still be used as a reference.

The long-short ratio dropped from 1.4 to 1.2, from 1.8 to 0.8 in June, and from 2.7 to 0.6 in March. As the saying goes, "bulls will not die, and bears will not stop." The bulls can still explode. After all, it is very satisfying to make money from the explosion.

4 Operational suggestions

It is recommended to wait and see, there is a high probability of another wave of decline. Wait until the decline is completed and a divergence is formed, and it is safer to enter at the first buying point. Even if there is no decline, wait for the price to return to 10600 and the second buying point to appear before buying the bottom.

DeFi and other projects are also waiting for the market to stabilize and Bitcoin prices to stabilize, and they are operating at the same time. DeFi also has a risk, with large leverage. If the price drops too much, a chain stampede may be quite scary. Fortunately, there is no major change in the fundamentals, and a subsequent correction is a high probability event.

Various DeFi hypes have begun to shift from ETH to a series of public chains such as EOS, TRON, and Ant, and there will be new ecosystems and new concepts such as Polkadot and Filecoin in the future. As long as there is no black swan event, the fundamentals will be positive and can be maintained until the end of the year.

Risk warning: First-rate traders do the trading, second-rate traders write stock (coin) reviews, and third-rate traders join the group to take orders and earn commissions. (Author: Zhao Yutao Editor: Wu Shuo Blockchain)

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