2020 BTC halving forecast from social media sentiment

By Nicholas Resendez

After the financial turmoil caused by Covid-19, the cryptocurrency market is slowly but steadily recovering. BTC returned above $7,000 during a busy trading day on Thursday. The BTC halving is expected to be completed around May 12, 2020. The event is supposedly already factored into the price of BTC; however, judging future performance based on the past of the cryptocurrency market will never paint a clear picture. So, what does the 2020 BTC halving mean?

Google Trends shows that the search volume related to this BTC halving has exceeded the search volume of BTC halving in 2016.

The topic of BTC halving has been going viral in the cryptocurrency community on Twitter. There may be a round of price speculation in the market when discussing whether the reduction in BTC market supply means an increase in demand for Bitcoin. LunarFeed detailed on Twitter how BTC halving affects its price.

The 2012 halving reduced BTC production by $302,000 per week (or $43,200 per day). The 2016 halving reduced BTC production by another $8.19 million per week (or $1.17 million per day). The 2020 halving will reduce BTC production by $63 million per week (or $9 million per day). So, what is the social media sentiment about the impact of the BTC halving on its price? BTC Price vs BTC Social Volume According to LunarCRUSH — Social Listening For Crypto, BTC’s Social Volume has remained stable over the past year, but has been increasing recently. It is clear that BTC’s Social Volume increased significantly on March 20, 2020.

BTC Price vs Market Bullish Sentiment As the volume of discussion around BTC on social media increases, we need to pay attention to whether most people are bullish or bearish on BTC when it is mentioned. The bullish sentiment chart of BTC on LunarCRUSH shows that the surge in BTC bullish sentiment coincides with the surge in its social volume. What about bearish sentiment, will we also see an increase in bearish tweets?

BTC Price vs Market Bearish Sentiment The bearish sentiment around BTC does not seem to be that strong, and it has not seen as big peaks as the bullish sentiment around BTC. Social Volume is an important indicator to pay attention to the strength of the community. While paying attention to the development of the crypto community, the discussion around BTC and blockchain technology is also important.

BTC vs ETH BTC price has risen by about 10% in the past 24 hours, maintaining the level of April 3. BTC has recovered slightly from the financial storm of "Black Thursday". Its price has been fluctuating between $6,600 and $7,300, and has not yet reflected a clear price trend.

At the time of writing, ETH is trading at $182 (down 2.79%). On the other hand, $176 happens to be ETH's first support, which was also the high of the previous week. ETH rose to $190 after the "Black Thursday" crash (its price has also fully recovered).

Short-term impact on the crypto community If BTC price holds above the untested resistance level of $7,400 in early April, the price could rebound to the $7,900-8,000 range. As long as BTC price remains below $7,000, discussions about the uncertainty of BTC halving will continue to flood social media.