The secret to making ultra-short-term profits in Bitcoin: What time of the day is best for trading?

The cryptocurrency market is open for trading 24/7, so it is impossible to keep an eye on the market. Market fluctuations can often reach 1-2% ups and downs within a few minutes, such as the obvious volatility of BTC. Some people have to wait with empty positions, while others specialize in ultra-short-term trading to achieve small profits.

Ultra-short-term trading relies on the traders' reaction speed, which is fast, accurate and ruthless. If you can't do this, you are likely to be repeatedly harvested by small market trends. In order to study the profitability of ultra-short-term trading, Feixiaohao analyzes the distribution of rises and falls and the magnitude of rises and falls in a day, hoping to provide some reference value for traders who focus on short-term trading and better hunt for opportunities.

What are the differences in the rise and fall in different time periods? Which time periods are the main market periods?

The average of the rise and fall in the figure is the rise and fall after absolute value processing

We processed the daily rise and fall data for the past year and obtained the above chart. From the bar chart, we can see that there are a total of 48 30-minute lines throughout the day, and only the three half-hour lines of 0:00/8:00/20:00 have an average rise and fall of more than 0.4%. These are the three periods with the largest rise and fall in the long run, and can be considered as the main market period.

Therefore, if short-term traders who follow trending markets concentrate their trading in these three time periods, theoretically there will be more room for growth, which will help increase trading returns.

Are there many opportunities for big market trends during major time periods?

In order to further study the number of opportunities when the market volatility is greater than 200 points, we sorted out the data of the rise and fall of more than 200 points in the past year and found that within a year, the three half-hour lines of 0 o'clock/8 o'clock/20 o'clock have the most trading opportunities.

However, there are only 33/26/24 opportunities for the stock price to rise or fall by more than 200 points in a year, which means that there is only one such opportunity every two weeks or so on average. So don't think about big market trends every day, which is not very realistic.

Are there frequent chances that the market fluctuations will be greater than 100 points? What are the characteristics?

Although there are not many opportunities to gain profits around 200 points, opportunities for market fluctuations greater than 100 are more common. The period from 10 a.m. to 3 p.m. every day is the low point of trading opportunities.

Do you find it strange that the market in the Chinese market does not fluctuate greatly during the main trading hours? Does this mean that although the main trading area in the market is Asia, a certain range of market conditions need to be driven by Europe and the United States? Can it be assumed that large funds are trading during European and American trading hours, or that news from European and American countries has a more general impact on the BTC market? Or is it because Chinese retail investors trade after work, which forms a synergy with European and American trading hours, causing large investors to like to drive the market in the evening?

These are of course just some inferences we made based on our data findings. The real reasons may be both or even more obscure.

What are the trading opportunities during the main market hours?

The figure is a grouped pie chart of the half-hour K-line volatility (volatility = highest price - lowest price) points.

0 represents a volatility of less than 100 points, 1 represents a volatility between 100 and 200 points, and 2 represents a volatility of more than 200 points.

What are the opportunities in each major market period?

For all half-hour K-lines in the past year, the volatility was below 100 points accounting for 85%, the volatility was between 100 points and 200 points accounting for 12%, and the volatility was above 200 points accounting for 3%. The details are shown in the following table:

In general, if the fluctuation is greater than 100 points, it is considered a trading opportunity. The trading opportunities at 0 o'clock are 100% more than the average trading opportunities, and 8 o'clock and 20 o'clock are nearly 70% and 40% more respectively. In the long run, if you insist on trading the half-hour K-line at 0 o'clock, the fluctuation can reach more than 100 points 3 times out of 10.

From now on, there is a new reason to stay up late - to make money.

Does the chance depend on what day of the week it is?

In the figure, 1-7 represent Monday to Sunday

Judging from the data of the past year, if the data of each time period is added together, there are the fewest trading opportunities with the index exceeding 100 points on Sunday.

If we divide the time periods into time periods, the three half-hour lines of Thursday 0:00, Thursday 8:00 and Monday 20:00 should be paid the most attention. On the contrary, there is no need to pay too much attention to the time periods of Sunday 0:00/Sunday and Monday 8:00, Tuesday 20:00, etc.

Try to think about it, is it feasible to trade only at 0:00 and a half hours on Thursday? We already know that there will be 2 fluctuations exceeding 100 and 1 fluctuation exceeding 200 in 10 0:00 and a half hour lines.

So assuming that the 70 half-hour lines are distributed from Monday to Sunday, there are 21 opportunities for fluctuations of more than 100 points, of which 21% are distributed on Thursday. That means on average, out of 10 times, there are 4.41 opportunities on Thursday for fluctuations of more than 100 points, of which 1.47 opportunities are for fluctuations of more than 200 points.

We can draw a conclusion. If we use the trend breakout strategy at 0 o'clock, and assume that there is no profit or loss in the other 6 times when there is no obvious trend, then theoretically we can harvest at least 588 points of market (1.47 200 + (4.41-1.47) 100) in these 4 times. Assuming that the accuracy rate is only 50% in the long term, and we can only get 1/3 of the market, then we can get 97 points of profit in 10 weeks, and about 500 points of low-risk profit in 52 weeks a year. 500 points may seem small, but if the risk is low and leverage can be added, it will be very considerable.

Generally speaking, there are big market trends on Friday, Saturday and Sunday?

There may be occasional big market trends on Friday, Saturday and Sunday, but from the perspective of short-term trading, the opportunities are not very obvious. If traders are obsessed with trading opportunities on these three days, they should pay more attention to: Friday 0:00/4:00/5:00/16:00/20:00/21:00, Saturday 0:00/4:00, these K lines, use trend strategy to enter the market.

As for the opportunities for short-term trading on Sundays, they are not obvious. Among the 52 weeks in a year, the chances of the price fluctuating by more than 200 points on Sundays are no more than 5 times on average in each period. In other words, in any period on Sunday, there is not a single chance of a fluctuation of more than 200 points out of 10 times of entering the market.

Indeed, it would be too uncomfortable if you still have to watch the market and trade cryptocurrencies (and get ripped off) on Sunday.

Does the BTC market have significant ups and downs during the opening and closing times of U.S. stocks?

The U.S. stock market opens at 9:30 Eastern Time and closes at 16:00. It is now U.S. daylight saving time, which is 12 hours behind Beijing time. Converted to Beijing time, the opening time is 21:30 and the closing time is 4:00.

From the data of the last month in the chart, in addition to the half-hour K-lines at 0:00/8:00/20:00 mentioned earlier, the frequency of the K-lines at 21:30 and 4:00 that fluctuated by more than 100 points was significantly higher than the average level. Therefore, in the near term, it is necessary to pay close attention to the market at the opening and closing times of the US stock market, but it is unknown whether this pattern will continue for a long time.

To sum up, short-term traders should try to watch the market and trade at 0:00/8:00/20:00 every day, and there are the most opportunities on Thursday. As a non-professional trend trader, only by grasping the most effective market period can you create better trading returns under the conditions of limited energy and funds.

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