Opinion | Bitcoin price bull run may last 1,000 days

Source: Blockchain Pencil

By William Suberg

Compiled by: Penny

Bitcoin is worth more in 2020 than in any other year of its existence. Historical data suggests its price will continue to climb for another 19 months.

Data uploaded to Twitter by fund partner James Todaro on Feb. 21 showed that 2020 was Bitcoin’s best year ever in terms of volume-weighted average price.

BTC volume-weighted average: 2020 is the biggest year yet

Image credit: Twitter @JamesTodaroMD

The volume-weighted average calculates the Bitcoin price over a certain period of time based on the ratio of transactions.

According to Todaro’s calculations, the average price of BTC/USD in 2020 is $9,120. This is even higher than in 2017, when the pair reached its all-time high of $20,000. The volume-weighted average price for the year was $6,125.

On the surface, 2019 was a much more successful year in terms of spot prices, but Bitcoin’s volume-weighted average was slightly lower last year than in 2018.

“It strongly suggests that most of the money that was moved into Bitcoin in previous years would have been profitably converted to USD if Bitcoin had been held in previous years,” Todaro commented.

Model predicts a 570-day bull run

Looking ahead, data from the previous year’s Bitcoin bull run similarly paints an encouraging picture for the next year and a half.

By analyzing Bitcoin’s bull cycle, the investor and trader known as CryptoKea claims that its length suggests that Bitcoin will continue to grow for about 570 days.

Despite an 8% market drop last week, 2020 has been marked by strength for Bitcoin. Year to date, BTC/USD is up nearly 35%.

“In the last two Bitcoin bull cycles, the lowest and highest price swings around the halving dates were almost equal,” CryptoKea explained.

“If this relationship holds true, then we still have 570 more days of the bull run ahead of us, with the cycle top occurring around September 2021.”

Image source: Twitter @CryptoKea

This deadline is similar to the predictions of the increasingly popular stock-to-flow Bitcoin price model, which calls for an average price of $100,000 between 2021 and 2024.