Aladdin first talks about the halving mining coin strategy in February: After the mainstream rotation, it’s time for the big coin to have a big positive month

The long-awaited halving consensus

History is always surprisingly similar, but not that simple. Looking at the past Bitcoin K-line data, the four-year halving may be late, but it has never been absent .

The first halving was discovered on November 28, 2012, when Bitcoin was extremely niche, and it was a process from 0 to 1. The second and most recent halving occurred in 2016, a process from 1 to 10 (see below), and now we are facing the third halving, perhaps from 10 to 100, 1000?

Replay of BTC production cut in July 2016

As can be seen from the figure, BTC prices began to rise on May 23, two months before the halving, and continued until mid-June. As the halving approached, the price rose in a short period of time, showing a significant premium compared to the computing power at the time. Miners shipped goods and caused the price to fall rapidly. After a period of sideways trading at around US$670, the price fell sharply half a month after the halving. This process is similar to the LTC halving last year, but the difference is that BTC gained computing power support around US$580 after a rapid decline, and the price did not continue to fall. Then, with the increase in computing power and the establishment of ETH consensus that year, the bull market of 2017-2018 began.

Halving does not mean an immediate surge. In addition to the fluctuations of its own price over time, it will also affect and cooperate with the rise and fall of surrounding currencies. When Litecoin halved last year, it was found that in addition to itself, Litecoin also led Bitcoin, ETH and other currencies to rise, and cooperated with DeFi, IXO and other market hype sentiments to jointly push up, getting out of the psychological shadow of the bear market.

The first wave of the market in January this year was driven by the leading coins (dash, etc, bsv); the second echelon relayed (zec, ada, bch), and the compensatory coins made up for the rise (eth, ltc, xmr). One round of rise is completed. If you want a second round, you must see whether the leading coin can start again or a new leader appears. If not, you need to rest. But the overall market bulls still dominate, perhaps it is just waiting for the strong debut of Bitcoin after the warm-up.

The Chinese New Year red envelopes from DASH, ETC, and BSV have all been received. When you are bored, should you spend some time waiting for the main course or leave?

We have already shared the logic behind the capture of DASH, ETC, and BSV on January 10 :

“First, history is surprisingly similar. In the past, the halving of mining coins was concentrated on mainstream mining coins with contract transactions, so XZC and BEAM were excluded first;

Second, compared to simply cutting production by half, we prefer projects with multiple hot spots;

1. Choose ETC because it is expected to take over the computing power of ETH, and its development will continue to attract market attention as ETH switches to POS. ETC is known as the doomsday chariot. Among the eight currencies that have been halved and reduced in production, it has the smallest circulation volume among the varieties that have opened contracts on mainstream exchanges. It is expected to take over the computing power of ETH when Ethereum 2.0 starts to switch from POW to POS, not only graphics cards, but also subsequent FPGAs and ASICs.

2. This year, anonymous coins and privacy protection have attracted much attention from the market. We chose Dash over Zcash, mainly because Zcash's halving will be delayed until the end of the year, and the project is facing certain financial problems.

3. We chose BSV over BTC, BCH and BSV because: BTC’s halving time is late and its volume is large, so the launch will be slow and may not start until February. Secondly, BSV’s circulation was smaller at the time and it was going to be upgraded soon, and there were many fundamentalist believers, so we chose BSV instead of BCH. ”

From the perspective of the entire industry chain, whether it is mining machine manufacturers, sales, miners, exchanges, or coin holders, all of them are bullish on themselves without exception. This may be the consensus on halving.

The halving will take place in May, three months in advance. In this way, we believe that the halving trend has arrived, and the only thing missing is the monthly big positive in February. After the production cuts of ETC, BSV, and DASH, and the sideways trading at the bottom in 2018-2019, as the leader of the halving trend in the 2020 cryptocurrency circle, we will have to wait and see how Bitcoin performs.

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