[Cold Facts] In the bear market, should miners buy mining machines or coins at the bottom?

BTC price trend from December 15, 2018 to June 27, 2019

The calculation requirements are as follows:

1. The mining machine data was obtained by asking several professional mining machine dealers in the scientific mining community.

2. For the convenience of calculation, the mining machine selected is Ant S9.

3. The FPPS income/T from December 15, 2018 to June 27, 2019 is obtained by calculating the BTC network block data from December 2018 to July 2019.

4. For a more detailed summary of the calculation data, please click "Read More".

Without considering the situation of selling coins to pay electricity bills, assuming that X Ant S9 mining machines are purchased in December 2018, the daily electricity bill should be 11.664 yuan, calculated as 192 days from December 15, 2018 to June 27, 2019, and the following equation can be listed.

700X + 192*11.664X = 10000000

It can be obtained that 3402 Ant S9 mining machines can be purchased in December 2018. The cost of the mining machine is 2381400 yuan, and the electricity cost is 7618600 yuan.

From the start of mining on December 15, 2018 to June 27, 2019, the total mining revenue should be: 0.008052337065562618 * 3402 * 13.5 = 369.819684410094357 BTC.

On June 27, 2019, all were sold at a price of RMB 96,911 per coin, and the total mining income was: RMB 35,839,595.435866654220179.

3402 Ant S9 mining machines were sold at second-hand prices, and the mining machine profit was: 3402 * 2300 = RMB 7824600.

The total revenue is: RMB 43664195.435866654220179.

The rate of return is

(43664195.435866654220179-10000000)/10000000 =336.6419543586665%

On December 15, 2018, 10 million yuan was invested to purchase Bitcoin 10000000/23038 = 434.0654570709 BTC.

On June 27, 2019, all BTC were sold, and 434.0654570709 * 96911 = 42,065,717.510198 RMB was obtained.

The rate of return is

(42,065,717.510198-10000000)/10000000 =320.65717510198%.

The following points may cause errors:

1. The above are all theoretical calculations, and the actual timing of buying at the bottom and selling high is unclear.

2. In reality, there is a delay from purchasing a mining machine to starting it for mining. After mining, there will be mine maintenance and mining machine failures.

3. In reality, electricity costs fluctuate during the mining cycle.
   

4. After the actual mining machine is connected to the mining pool, the mining pool will charge some handling fees.

5. In reality, buying Bitcoin can be used for financial operations such as leverage.

   
   

• Buying mining machines at the lowest end of the bear market and selling them at the highest point can yield up to 336.64% return.

• Buying Bitcoin at the lowest end of the bear market and selling it at the highest point can earn you up to 320.66% return.

• In a bear market, the total profit from mining with mining machines is greater than the total profit from mining Bitcoin at the bottom.

• Next year, Bitcoin will usher in the next block reward halving, which will become an important factor affecting the price of the currency.

• If you do not consider starting the machine for mining when buying mining machines at the bottom, you can buy all the mining machines with 1000W and hoard them, and sell them at the highest point to get a 228.57% return.

• Mainstream mining machine prices on November 26, 2019