A survey among the world’s top fund managers perfectly illustrates the direction of “smart money.” The September 2017 survey by Bank of America Merrill Lynch Fund Management (BAML) showed that Bitcoin is currently the most crowded investment (the most popular investment), with the majority of people bullish on Bitcoin. Why the BAML survey is importantThe BAML survey was conducted from September 1 to 7 and has attracted considerable attention on Wall Street. The more than 200 fund management companies participating in the survey have assets under management of $629 billion. Therefore, this survey is a good indicator of where the smart money is going. While Wall Street veterans have made completely opposite assessments of Bitcoin’s prospects, fund management companies seem to think that most people are bullish on Bitcoin.
High returns on BitcoinBitcoin investment has provided relatively high returns this year, from $950 at the beginning of the year to a peak of $5,000, and has remained around $4,000 recently. There are many reasons for the rise in the price of the currency - the activation of Segregated Witness (SegWit) can relieve network congestion, positive regulatory policies in Asian countries, institutional investors see Bitcoin as a viable investment option, etc. Fears of possible government action on bitcoin, particularly in China, have caused bitcoin prices to fall this month, but bitcoin enthusiasts see this as a temporary dip in the long-term price trend and that its value will continue to grow as it becomes more popular. Other popular dealsOther popular trades included long positions on the Nasdaq Composite (22%) and short positions on the U.S. dollar (21%), the BAML survey noted. In the four surveys conducted between May and August this year, long trades in the Nasdaq Composite Index have been the investment with the most participants. Both trades have performed well this year, with the Nasdaq Composite Index trading volume up 20%. Is now the best time to short Bitcoin?When most people are bullish on Bitcoin and it has become a "crowded investment", is now the best time to short Bitcoin? Becoming a crowded investment does not mean that the price recovery of an asset class has come to an end. The Nasdaq Composite Index has performed well this year, and this investment has been considered a crowded trade this year. Even those who oppose Bitcoin and call it a scam (such as Jamie Dimon) will not choose to short Bitcoin because no one knows how high the price of the currency will rise. Therefore, shorting Bitcoin is like a gamble, and the cost can be high. |
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