Gavin Andresen: Ethereum will not replace Bitcoin, and more nodes will not make much sense

Recently, Gavin Andresen, the former chief developer of the Bitcoin core version of the software, posted a tweet about Ethereum, which attracted a lot of suspicion. Some media reported that he was no longer optimistic about Bitcoin. Recently, Gavin himself has clarified.

On September 25, Gavin said on his personal Twitter:

Today, Ethereum has more full nodes than Bitcoin. Prediction: This lead will continue even as the Ethereum blockchain surpasses Bitcoin in size.

Many people interpret this sentence as "Gavin predicts that Ethereum will replace Bitcoin and become the world's most prominent cryptocurrency." But this is not the case.

Ethereum shows that a massive blockchain can remain decentralized

Gavin further clarified his comments to Bitcoin.com, saying that Ethereum is just an example of how more flexible protocols can still remain decentralized.

The main argument for increasing Bitcoin's block size is that it will increase the risk of network centralization. Small block proponents argue that large blocks require more bandwidth and storage space, which will cause smaller node operators to opt out.

Gavin believes that this concept is wrong and that operators have other reasons to run nodes. He has claimed that Bitcoin will not be affected by the increase in block size.

As for Ethereum, he said it showed that larger blockchains could remain decentralized, and he was surprised to see that the Ethereum network has about 6,000 full nodes, compared to Bitcoin’s 5,000.

Currently, the size of the Bitcoin blockchain is about 84.9GB, while the Ethereum blockchain is relatively small, but its growth rate is faster (Bitcoin has existed for 5 years before Ethereum). Some Ethereum client software is also trying to "prune" the blockchain to reduce its size.

Ethereum will not replace Bitcoin

“If I’m correct and blockchain size is unrelated to the number of full nodes (but reflects how much people value the chain), then it’s likely that over the next year, Ethereum will be less centralized (as measured by the number of nodes on the network) even as its blockchain size exceeds Bitcoin’s,” Gavin said.

This comparison, however, does not diminish Bitcoin’s current strength and status as the world’s most popular cryptocurrency.

“This doesn’t mean that Bitcoin will die or that Ethereum will replace Bitcoin as the number one cryptocurrency,” Gavin said. “5,000 nodes are enough, and even if Ethereum nodes reach 100,000, it won’t mean much. Ordinary people don’t know and don’t care how many nodes are relaying or verifying their transactions.”

Gavin also added that even if the Bitcoin network only had 1,000 bps in 50 countries, it would still be decentralized enough.

Comparison with other Internet protocols

He said the lower layers of the Internet technology stack are more centralized and more vulnerable. People who worry about risks should look at the domain name system and the machines that form the backbone of the Internet's border network management protocols. Those risks are small.

In May, Gavin pointed out that other widely used Internet protocols do not have hard-coded size limits like Bitcoin. Although the Border Gateway Protocol has a certain flow limit, it is nothing compared to Bitcoin's limit.

What to do next

Although Gavin is no longer actively writing code for Bitcoin Core, he still has a great influence in the cryptocurrency world. He has publicly expressed his opposition to the 1MB block size limit, believing that the current blocks are far more congested than people realize.

A few months ago, other Core developers removed Gavin (and fellow developer Jeff Garzik) from the bitcoin core codebase for opaque and controversial reasons, citing concerns that Gavin’s account had been “hacked” after he met with Craig Wright.

Gavin did not receive an official notification of the removal of his access rights or the real reason. The Core team has some great programmers, but the team needs to think more and communicate with the community, he said.

Now, Gavin is considering how and whether to play an active role in the world of Bitcoin and cryptocurrency.

"A lot of smart people are doing a lot of interesting things, which is great. I've been able to have a lot of time to step back and decide what I want the role to be."