Huobi jointly released the "2014-2016 Global Bitcoin Development Report", which provides a comprehensive understanding of the development of Bitcoin in recent years (full text download)

After three rounds of surges of more than 10%, Bitcoin production will experience its second halving on July 10. Against this backdrop, will the surge continue? Where will Bitcoin's future go?

On July 8, two days before the Bitcoin halving, at the Beijing Wuzhou Crowne Plaza, the Internet Finance Laboratory of Tsinghua University PBC School of Finance, Sina Technology and China's leading Bitcoin trading platform Huobi.com jointly produced the "2014-2016 Global Bitcoin Development Report" (full text download), which elaborated on the above issues through the analysis of Bitcoin's birth, industry layout, financing and transaction data. This report also received strong support from Weiyang.com, the official media of the Internet Finance Laboratory of Tsinghua University PBC School of Finance.

Huobi co-founder Du Jun delivered a speech

Li Zhanglu, Vice President of Sequoia Capital, He Peifei, Director of Basic Research of Internet Finance Laboratory of Tsinghua University PBC School of Finance, Zhang Jingzhu, General Manager of Huazhang Company of China Machinery Industry Press, Li Heran, Deputy Editor-in-Chief of Sina Technology, Du Jun, Co-founder of Huobi, Zhu Jiawei, Vice President of Operations of Huobi, and Zhang Jian, Head of Huobi Digital Currency and Blockchain Research Center, attended the press conference.

Tsinghua University PBC School of Finance Internet Finance Laboratory
Director of Basic Research He Peifei delivered a speech

Sina Technology Deputy Editor-in-Chief Li Heran delivered a speech

This report is the first research report in my country that comprehensively analyzes the global development of Bitcoin. It summarizes and analyzes the development history of Bitcoin through detailed data, discusses the problems facing Bitcoin, and makes bold predictions about future trends.

The report is divided into six parts.

The origin of Bitcoin: the birth of decentralized ledgers; Bitcoin industry chain: China and Europe and the United States have their own strengths in upstream and downstream; Bitcoin industry financing: traditional fields account for a large proportion, and blockchain performs well; Bitcoin transaction data analysis: investors are professional and focus on short-term profits; Discussion on the core issues of Bitcoin: price fluctuations, security issues and criminal use; Blockchain concept and development status: still in the early stages.

Huobi Operations Vice President Releases 2014-2016 Bitcoin Global Development Report

When interpreting the report, Zhu Jiawei, vice president of operations at Huobi, believes that unless there is major positive information about Bitcoin, such as advancement in its applications, it is unlikely that the price of the currency will skyrocket after Bitcoin production is halved.

From 2009 to 2012, Bitcoin production experienced its first halving. During the first halving cycle of Bitcoin, the price of Bitcoin rose from zero to a maximum of $30. What drove the price up was people's recognition of the value of Bitcoin, not changes in supply.

Therefore, Bitcoin did not see a big rise before and after the first halving. In the half month before and after the last halving, the highest and lowest points of Bitcoin prices were $12.67 and $11.78 respectively, which was in a sideways state. The impact of this year's halving of Bitcoin production on prices is quite different from the last time. Before this round of halving, market sentiment surged, a large number of players entered the market, and affected by the risk aversion of Brexit, Bitcoin has experienced three rounds of sharp rises since May.

Currently, the application of Bitcoin is very fragile. In addition, Bitcoin itself has no price limit, so once there is significant news, the price of Bitcoin will fluctuate significantly. The issuance of Bitcoin is an open and transparent matter. Under such a mechanism, all participants in the Bitcoin system can make predictions and respond to this variable, which means that the impact of production on prices can be digested in advance.

According to the latest sampling survey of Huobi.com, 80.77% of Huobi users trade Bitcoin for short-term profit and earn profit through price difference; 13.81% of users regard Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset and hold it for a long time; and 1.26% of users trade Bitcoin for payment.

At the same time, Zhu Jiawei believes in his research report that the arrival of the second round of halving will lead to the elimination of some inefficient mining equipment and miners. Under the pressure of halving, miners must continue to work hard to keep their profits.

In miner economics, the cost is various electricity costs, labor costs and various operating expenses, and the income is the Bitcoin reward obtained × Bitcoin market price. The halving of Bitcoin production means that the Bitcoin reward of miners has been cut in half, which also means that the income has been cut in half at that specific moment. In the last Bitcoin halving, about 20% of the computing power was eliminated. After that, more efficient mining equipment was put into the Bitcoin system, and the computing power quickly recovered and continued to grow rapidly. The impact of this round of halving on Bitcoin mining will probably follow the same logic.

The author of this book, Zhang Jian, on behalf of Huobi’s creative team, elaborated on the development of blockchain in detail. As Zhang Jian said, “Blockchain technology has begun to move from concept to practical application, with more and more funds flowing into blockchain startups and innovations in related fields. As financial institutions and large traditional companies from various countries join the exploration of blockchain technology, a real revolution is quietly approaching.”