Who did this wave of market? !

     This wave of market has lasted for two months, from 1400 points in early September to over 2000 points now. The pace is neither fast nor slow, and it is very different from the past. Some reasons have been circulated in the circle, but they all seem to be untenable:

Reason 1: MMM used Bitcoin to sell products and drive up the price of Bitcoin

It is true that MMM used Bitcoin to engage in pyramid selling, and this has become a consensus in the circle. Even Li Xiaolai couldn't help but put aside his old grudges and once again sent a special Weibo post to warn the cryptocurrency circle.

But there are two doubts about this explanation:

1) Using Bitcoin for pyramid selling, the offline should buy and pay Bitcoin, and the online should accept Bitcoin. MMM pyramid selling is about love, not freedom, and the members are definitely not Bitcoin cultists. Bitcoin is just a means, and the money earned is still legal currency. Therefore, if you buy, you will always sell. And the main force of this wave of market is obviously only buying and not selling;

2)

2) When using Bitcoin for pyramid schemes, buying and selling activities should also be dispersed among members in different locations. However, the characteristic of this market situation is that there are concentrated purchases by the main players, sometimes on OK and sometimes on Huobi.

Reason 2: Hong Kong tycoons buy Bitcoin to pay ransom for kidnappings

Judging from the buying characteristics, it is somewhat similar. They keep buying, slow down when the price goes up, and continue to buy when the selling orders are accumulated. However, the matter has been resolved recently and the hostages have been rescued. Even if the kidnappers did not get the Bitcoin, or dared not sell it after getting the Bitcoin, then at least the rich do not need to continue to buy Bitcoin. There is no reason for the price to continue to rise after 1900 points, especially after 2000 points. After all, there are quite a lot of selling orders accumulated at 2000 points.

Reason 3: This is a normal market trend

In other words, it is believed that the accumulation of the Bitcoin market has reached the rising stage. In general, after 1400 points, Bitcoin should indeed enter a stable price recovery stage. However, this explanation has more doubts:

1) There has been no particularly significant good news recently. Under the selling pressure of the new currency, it is difficult to explain why the market has spontaneously risen so fast, especially breaking through the 1,800 and 2,000 yuan levels in succession.

2) Judging from the characteristics of the rise, it does not seem like a dispersed market behavior, but rather a concentrated buying order with a lot of regularity: buy a wave, wait a while, buy another wave, and wait again.

3) The bigger question is that in this round of market, altcoins did not rise at all! ! The debate between Bitcoin and altcoins is far from over, and the two tokens are still in full swing before the market. In the past natural market, altcoins followed the market of Bitcoin. Because altcoins are small in scale and more speculative, their volatility will exceed that of Bitcoin. That is, when Bitcoin rises, altcoins will rise faster, and when Bitcoin falls, altcoins will fall faster. In this round of market, altcoins have nothing to do with it! From this point of view alone, this is definitely not a normal market trend.

The above three explanations are untenable. I would like to make a rash guess about the fourth possibility:

Reason four: There are large funds from outside the domestic market that are quietly absorbing stocks.

The main basis is:

1) The characteristic of the rising market is to absorb the goods without publicity, buy a batch, wait for the depth of selling orders to form, and then buy another batch, which is neither hot nor cold, and it has been operated for two months. This operation is quite successful. In just 24 hours on October 29, at around 2000 points, the three major platforms traded 1.5 million BTC. There must be many old coin holders who handed over their bottom-of-box goods. This operation lasted for two months, but the price of the currency only rose by 40%, and the rhythm was well controlled.

2) With such a continuous rise, people in the market were completely confused about the reason for the rise. In the absence of major positive news and mainstream media hype, the market ignored warnings from the market, the pressure from the 2,000-point mark, and the resentful looks of competing coins, and continued to rise silently and tenaciously.

3) This wave of market is completely led by the domestic market, which should be beyond doubt. The foreign market has been following the trend with difficulty, and the price difference often reaches 60 to 70 yuan. Even if we exclude the overvaluation caused by the RMB exchange rate control of 20-30 yuan, there is often a price difference of about 40 yuan.

     Taking into account the above three grounds and other doubts, the explanation that there is large external funds absorbing the goods in China is more plausible.

     Although this conjecture may lead to dangerous optimism and produce bad consequences. However, there is really no better explanation at present. If the guess is right. Then I am afraid that 2000 points is really not the focus of the market. First, two months of continuous purchases have reduced the supply of the market like a pump, leaving a large amount of RMB in the market, and the supply and demand forces will support the price; second, the main force has been quietly absorbing goods, which is only the first stage of making money. If you want to make money in the short term, there should be a process of building momentum and pushing up, and then you can harvest. If you are interested in the application prospects of Bitcoin, there should be important breakthroughs in industry or policy in the future, which will also boost the market. Of course, there are many possibilities. If the absorption of goods is just to smash the market or even destroy Bitcoin, the prospect will be quite terrible.

     In short, one thing is certain, this wave of market is not done by people in the circle. I hope someone can tell me who did it. Maybe there are some clues on several large platforms, but I am afraid they will not share them with you.