When will this market downturn end?

The past few months have been a tough few for cryptocurrencies.

While the price of BTC has not dropped too far from its all-time high, there are many altcoins that have seen their prices drop by more than 60-70% in the past few months.

Why does this happen?

I think there are several reasons for this:

• The US and German governments are selling BTC

• Mt. Gox’s BTC repayments will begin this month (billions of dollars worth of BTC will be distributed to its users)

• Summer is a historically poor season for cryptocurrencies in terms of price performance

• The upcoming Ethereum spot ETF (although their launch is a positive in the long run) will unlock $9 billion worth of ETH from the Grayscale Ethereum Trust

• Historically, the halving has been a sell-the-news event in the short term — last cycle, BTC traded sideways for 5 months after the halving

The list could go on and on...

But I think the main reason so many people keep selling and there seem to be no buyers is that there are no major catalysts for cryptocurrencies in the short term.

Does this mean the bull market is over? I think not.

We have many bullish catalysts in Q4’24 including the Fed rate cuts, the US presidential election (historically bullish for crypto), and FTX cash repayments.

I think the FTX payback is particularly bullish because $16 billion in cash will be distributed to former FTX users — and many of them will likely reinvest that money in crypto.

Don’t forget, FTX collapsed when BTC was worth around $20,000. Most of the people who invested in crypto on FTX at that time were crypto natives who were optimistic about the long-term prospects of the industry.

However, it will still be several months before FTX repays the money.

As I said, in the short term, I don't see any major bullish catalysts.

I expect volatility to continue this summer, with the upward trend resuming sometime in late summer or fall.

This doesn't mean it's a good idea to sell all your crypto now and try to buy it back at a lower price. I do believe we are closer to the bottom than the top.

But when the bottom will be reached is unknown, despite the dreams that false gurus like to sell: it is entirely possible to predict it.

Personally, I think now is a good time to accumulate high-conviction coins, which is what I am doing now.

In the end, patience and faith will be rewarded, as always.

On-chain Alpha

Ethereum DeFi leaders hit record revenue

DeFi leaders including Lido, MakerDAO, Uniswap, and AAVE are generating more revenue now than ever before.

But despite this, its market value/revenue ratio is at its lowest point in many years.

One reason could be that, despite protocols like Uniswap and Lido generating significant revenue, their revenue is not shared with token holders.

However, this may change in the future if US regulators allow it after the US presidential election.

The latest progress of DeFi

VanEck and 21Shares apply for Solana spot ETF

Arbitrum DAO proposes to launch ARB staking. 50% of the remaining sorter fees will be used to reward ARB stakers

Marginfi announces plans to launch mrgnswap, allowing traders to use leverage to go long/short newly created meme coins

Fluid launches refinancing, a one-click feature for importing positions from existing protocols into Fluid. Fluid users enjoy the best interest rates, highest LTV, and lowest liquidation penalties on the market

Solana introduces ZK Compression, a primitive that could bring huge network scalability improvements

pSTAKE ’s BTC Liquid Staking solution has over 32,000 users on the Babylon Testnet. Early depositors will receive a points boost when the mainnet launches

Bluefin has launched its $BLUE token, which is scheduled to be launched in July. Bluefin is the most popular derivatives DEX on Sui

Solana releases Blinks, a blockchain link that converts on-chain operations into shareable links on the internet (including X)

ZKsync launches Elastic Chain - an expanding ZK Rollup network with native interoperability

NATIX Network has launched its token $NATIX. Natix is ​​the first AI-powered dynamic map powered by DePIN and the driver community

Jupiter Exchange launches Jupiter Swap V3 with instant routing, smart token filtering, and other features

SEC Alleges Lido and Rocket Pool Staking Schemes Are Securities

The Aptos Foundation proposes to deploy AAVE on its first non-EVM network, Aptos