Can Bitcoin XT reach its target in time? NO!

Will Bitcoin XT be able to reach its target in time? Probably not!

Bitcoin XT, also known as BIP-101 (Bitcoin Improvement Proposal -101 ), is gradually gaining momentum. Bitcoin XT was proposed by two Bitcoin core developers, Gavin Andresen and Mike Hearn. It should be one of the solutions to the current Bitcoin block size problem.

Bitcoin XT or BIP-101 proposes to increase the block size from the current 1MB to 8MB by doubling the block size every year. The main reason for this proposal is to future-proof and scalable the Bitcoin network. Currently, the small block size of 1MB is very limited when it comes to increasing transaction volume. When the number of transactions through the blockchain increases, the processing speed must also increase proportionally to ensure that there are no delays in the process. Currently, the blockchain can only process two transactions per second. If the processing speed remains the same or even lags behind the growth of the total number of transactions on the network, delays and backlogs will occur. It may even cause many transactions to fail.

However, thanks to democratization and decentralization, any new reform proposal for the Bitcoin network requires a consensus of at least 75% of Bitcoin mining practitioners. Until now, Bitcoin practitioners, especially miners, have not reached a consensus on whether to adopt this proposal, but the situation may change soon. From some reports and conversations on social media forums like Reddit, it seems that the number of Bitcoin XT nodes created will surge. Currently, the number of nodes is around 623, which is more than 10% of the total Bitcoin nodes.

Currently, the percentage of block consensus is less than 1% of Bitcoin XT. This is because Bitcoin XT blocks only account for 0.3% of every 1,000 blocks generated by the Bitcoin network. There is speculation that many Bitcoin XT nodes are currently operating only in stealth mode to avoid distributed denial of service attacks ( DDoS attacks ) like the ones that occurred last year. However, at the current rate of Bitcoin XT block generation, it is impossible for Bitcoin XT blocks to increase from 3 per 1,000 blocks to 750 per 1,000 blocks by January 11, 2016.

If Bitcoin XT does not reach the required 75% consensus ratio of 750 blocks per 1,000 blocks, the block size will remain at 1MB and BIP-101 will not be possible. However, it is unclear whether Bitcoin XT can get back on track to achieve the consensus required in the future to integrate these changes into the main Bitcoin blockchain.